On April 11, during a series of meetings held in Havana, U.S. State Department officials issued a stark warning to the Cuban regime: the island's economy is in a state of "free fall," and urgent reforms are needed to prevent an irreversible crisis.
This caution was conveyed in several discussions between U.S. government representatives and members of Cuba's ruling body, as reported by the American media outlet Axios on Friday.
Among the identified Cuban participants was Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, often referred to as "Raulito" or "El Cangrejo," and the grandson of Raúl Castro.
At 41, the lieutenant colonel in the Ministry of the Interior has led the General Directorate of Personal Security since 2016, overseeing the protection of the ruling elite.
According to a senior State Department official quoted by Axios, Washington made it clear to their Cuban counterparts that the country's political elite faces a shrinking window of opportunity to act before the economic decline becomes irreversible.
The Diplomatic Significance of the Meeting
The meeting also carried substantial diplomatic weight. It marked the first time since former President Barack Obama's visit a decade ago that a U.S. government aircraft landed in Cuba for direct talks with the regime's authorities.
Although there were numerous exchanges during the meetings, the State Department only publicly confirmed the presence of Rodríguez Castro among the Cuban attendees.
Washington regards this official as a key interlocutor within the power circle surrounding Raúl Castro, who, at 94, remains a central figure in Cuba's command structure.
Washington's Concrete Demands
The absence of Miguel Díaz-Canel from the talks was interpreted by sources cited in the report as an indication that the true power in Cuba does not lie with the designated president but rather with the direct circle of the former leader.
Throughout the discussions, the U.S. delegation put forth several specific demands. These included compensation for American citizens and companies whose assets were seized after the 1959 Revolution, the release of political prisoners, and the expansion of political freedoms for the Cuban people.
Washington also emphasized the necessity of moving towards free and fair elections as part of any political change process on the island.
Beyond political demands, U.S. officials suggested the potential to restore internet access in Cuba through satellite services like Starlink, a proposal previously mentioned amid the country's connectivity restrictions.
Concerns Over Foreign Influence
The delegation also raised concerns about the presence of foreign intelligence groups, military structures, and hostile organizations operating on the island with the Cuban government's consent, less than 100 miles (160 kilometers) from U.S. territory.
The talks occurred amid an acute economic crisis in Cuba, characterized by inflation, food shortages, deteriorating basic services, and growing social discontent, all of which have heightened international pressure on the regime.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright reinforced the message from Washington on Friday: "We don't want a humanitarian crisis. We want to force change and let the Cuban people be free."
Wright added that the United States is prepared to sell oil and gas directly to the Cuban private sector immediately, although the current legislation explicitly excludes the government and entities like the military conglomerate GAESA.
Cuba's Economic Troubles
The economic backdrop underscores the urgency of the U.S. message. According to projections from the Economist Intelligence Unit, the Cuban economy will contract by 7.2% in 2026, amassing a nearly 23% decline since 2019. The island also suffers from power outages that exceed 20 hours daily in several areas.
The regime responded with an official statement from Díaz-Canel, issued on the same Friday and coinciding with the 65th anniversary of the Bay of Pigs Invasion: "Cuba will never be a trophy, nor a star" in the American constellation.
Additionally, the Cuban government approved a decree law today creating a special immigration category for Cubans abroad wishing to invest in the island, a measure already deemed insufficient by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who stressed that "their system of government must change."
"President Trump is committed to finding a diplomatic solution, if possible, but will not allow the island to collapse into a greater national security threat if Cuba's leaders are unwilling or unable to act," warned a State Department official.
Understanding U.S.-Cuba Relations Amid Economic Crisis
What prompted the recent U.S. warning to Cuba?
The U.S. warned Cuba due to the island's severe economic decline, urging the Cuban regime to implement reforms to prevent an irreversible crisis.
Who participated in the U.S.-Cuba meetings?
The meetings included U.S. government representatives and Cuban officials, notably Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, a key figure in the Cuban power structure.
What are the U.S.'s demands from Cuba?
The U.S. demands include compensation for seized American assets, the release of political prisoners, and the advancement towards free elections.