The United States Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has issued a grim report on the economic and social state of Cuba, describing a scenario filled with energy collapse, massive migration, and widespread shortages. Despite these dire conditions, the agency does not foresee an immediate downfall of the regime.
Disclosed exclusively to Reuters, the report concludes there is insufficient evidence to suggest that Miguel Díaz-Canel's government is on the verge of collapse. However, it remains unclear if the report considers the pressures from Washington following Nicolás Maduro's fall in Venezuela.
According to three sources with access to the confidential documents, CIA analysts believe that critical sectors of the Cuban economy—such as agriculture, tourism, and energy—are in a critical state. These sectors have been hit hard by power outages lasting up to 20 hours a day outside Havana, the loss of Venezuelan oil, and the impact of the embargo.
“Cuba is facing a very challenging situation, yet the CIA does not conclude that the regime is about to collapse,” stated sources cited by journalists Gram Slattery, Humeyra Pamuk, and Jonathan Landay.
The report emphasizes that the reduction in oil supply from Venezuela—Cuba's main energy ally for two decades—has worsened the country's structural crisis.
After Nicolás Maduro was captured by U.S. forces on January 3, the interim administration of Delcy Rodríguez in Caracas redirected almost all Venezuelan oil to the United States, leaving Cuba without its essential fuel source.
“Even when Venezuelan oil was flowing, Cuba's energy situation was dire. Without that supply, the impact will be catastrophic,” warned an analyst consulted by Reuters.
President Donald Trump has publicly asserted that the lack of oil will lead to the regime's collapse. “Cuba seems ready to fall. They no longer have revenue; they relied on Venezuelan oil,” the President remarked to reporters aboard Air Force One.
The intelligence report also highlights an unprecedented demographic crisis. Two U.S. officials indicated that Cuba's population has dropped below nine million after years of massive youth migration.
This “generational exodus,” according to the document, reduces social pressure for political change by draining energy and leadership from the sectors traditionally leading protests.
“When people are starving, their priority is survival. But desperation can eventually outweigh fear,” explained Richard Feinberg, a former national security advisor and professor at the University of California, San Diego.
The CIA reports draw parallels between the current situation and the “Special Period” of the 1990s following the Soviet Union's collapse, although they warn that the electrical and production infrastructure is in worse condition now.
President Miguel Díaz-Canel, who took office in 2021, is described as a leader lacking popular legitimacy and charisma, relying on military control and repression to maintain his government.
Despite the economic collapse, U.S. analysts see no clear signs of division within the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) or the Revolutionary Armed Forces, reinforcing the perception of repressive stability amid chaos.
Venezuela's collapse as an energy and financial provider has left Cuba isolated and vulnerable. Without the backing of Chavismo or Russia's economic influence, Havana faces its most severe crisis in over three decades.
Meanwhile, Washington continues a “maximum pressure” policy on the regime, with reinforced sanctions and open support for the Cuban opposition and exiles.
Analysts consulted by Reuters believe the island's political outcome will depend on the regime's ability to withstand hunger and social discontent without losing control over the armed forces and the security apparatus.
Understanding Cuba's Economic and Political Crisis
What is the current state of Cuba's economy according to the CIA?
The CIA describes Cuba's economy as being in a critical state with energy collapse, massive migration, and widespread shortages affecting key sectors like agriculture, tourism, and energy.
Why is Cuba facing an energy crisis?
Cuba's energy crisis has been exacerbated by the reduction in oil supply from Venezuela, its main energy ally for two decades, which has worsened the country's structural crisis.
How has population migration affected Cuba?
Massive youth migration has led to a demographic crisis, reducing the population below nine million and draining energy and leadership from sectors traditionally leading protests.