A recent report by The Economist highlights the looming economic and social collapse facing Cuba unless the regime undertakes significant and structural reforms.
Entitled "Cuba is heading for disaster, unless its regime changes drastically," the report paints a picture of a nation mired in its worst crisis in decades. Basic services are deteriorating, the economy is at a standstill, and mass migration is draining the island of its human capital.
According to the analysis, the current situation surpasses even the direst moments of the Special Period. One alarming statistic from the report is the average state salary: 6,506 pesos per month, which equates to approximately 14 dollars on the informal exchange market.
However, many workers earn even less—around 2,500 pesos, or roughly 5 dollars. Such incomes make essential goods like a carton of eggs (2,800 pesos) or a kilo of rice (650 pesos) almost unattainable.
Compounding the economic hardships faced by the Cuban people are daily blackouts, prolonged water shortages, and a healthcare system that manages to provide only 3% of the necessary medications.
The demographic impact is equally severe. According to the British magazine, since 2020, 2.75 million Cubans have emigrated, representing a quarter of the total population.
In 2024 alone, 788,000 people left the country, while 78% of those who remain express a desire to leave.
This migration crisis not only empties homes but also dismantles key professions in the country. The number of family doctors has nearly halved, and sectors such as ballet, sports, and education are experiencing a rapid loss of talent.
The Economist notes that Cuba has the lowest productivity in Latin America and the Caribbean, even below Haiti. The sugar industry, a historical symbol of the country, produced just 150,000 tons in 2024-2025, far from its former levels.
The depreciation of the Cuban peso—from 24 per dollar in 2019 to over 450 in 2025—combined with inflation and stagnant production, hinders any potential stability.
The only dynamic element in this bleak scenario is the private sector, where over 11,000 small and medium-sized enterprises provide one-third of employment and account for more than half of retail trade.
Nevertheless, the government takes an ambivalent stance, oscillating between allowing their operation and hindering it through regulations and bureaucratic controls.
The report asserts that political stagnation is at the core of the problem.
Raúl Castro, despite his advanced age, continues to influence strategic decisions and block any opening that might jeopardize the Communist Party's control.
In this context, the article quotes a phrase summarizing the views of several consulted experts: "The situation is so messed up that there's no fixing it... The only thing to do is to scrap it all and start anew."
Cuba is a nation exhausted, with a collapsed economy and a fleeing population. It requires profound and urgent change. As long as the political system continues to block reforms, the island will continue its march towards a predicted disaster.
Frequently Asked Questions About Cuba's Economic Crisis
What is causing Cuba's current economic crisis?
Cuba's crisis is largely due to prolonged economic mismanagement, a lack of structural reforms, and political stagnation, compounded by the depreciation of the peso, high inflation, and mass emigration.
How has migration affected Cuba?
Mass migration has drained Cuba of its human capital, leading to a loss of talent in critical sectors such as healthcare, education, and the arts, further weakening the nation's socio-economic fabric.