The unofficial currency exchange market in Cuba witnesses another surge in the prices of the dollar and euro this Thursday, marking the fifth consecutive day of increases, according to the independent media outlet elTOQUE.
Following a period of declining sales values, the black market is showing signs of a potential rebound, suggesting a possible upward trend.
In recent hours, the dollar's selling price has risen to 460 CUP, an increase of 10 pesos compared to the previous day. The European currency has also experienced an uptick, climbing from 480 to 490 CUP, 10 units higher than the previous day's rate.
The Representative Rate of the Informal Market (TRMi) indicates that the Freely Convertible Currency (MLC) has also increased from 205 to 210 CUP.
This resurgence in foreign currency values confirms that the black market remains the most reliable indicator of Cuba's economic crisis and the deep-seated distrust in the national peso.
Today's Exchange Rates: November 13, 2025 - 6:49 AM in Cuba
According to elTOQUE, the exchange rate for the US dollar (USD) is 460 CUP, while the euro (EUR) is 490 CUP, and the MLC stands at 210 CUP.
Is the Informal Market Trend Shifting?
This increase breaks the downward trend that had settled in the black market since late October, when the dollar fell from 485 to 410 CUP and the euro from 540 to 450 CUP, a rapid decline that reduced their value by nearly 100 Cuban pesos over a span of just ten days.
However, it now appears that the market is reacting once again to demand pressure and the general uncertainty engulfing the national economy.
The Cuban black market often responds swiftly to changes in supply or perceptions of the peso's stability. Since 2022, the national currency has faced relentless depreciation, interrupted only by short-lived pauses or temporary declines that have failed to reverse the ongoing deterioration of the CUP.
Persistent inflation, a lack of foreign currency, and distrust in the regime’s economic institutions continue to drive demand for dollars and euros as safe havens.
Additionally, cash shortages and banking connectivity issues on the island limit formal transactions, further fueling the parallel market.
While the government remains silent about the promised "floating rate" announced by Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz at the end of 2024, the gap between the official and informal exchange rates keeps widening.
Exchange Rate Equivalents
US Dollar (USD) to Cuban Peso (CUP):
1 USD = 460 CUP
5 USD = 2,300 CUP
10 USD = 4,600 CUP
20 USD = 9,200 CUP
50 USD = 23,000 CUP
100 USD = 46,000 CUP
Euro (EUR) to Cuban Peso (CUP):
1 EUR = 490 CUP
5 EUR = 2,450 CUP
10 EUR = 4,900 CUP
20 EUR = 9,800 CUP
50 EUR = 24,500 CUP
100 EUR = 49,000 CUP
200 EUR = 98,000 CUP
500 EUR = 245,000 CUP
In an article published last week, elTOQUE explained why the dollar and euro values in Cuba's black market periodically rise and fall but rarely return to their original levels.
The article attributed this behavior to the economic phenomenon known as "exchange rate overshooting," which occurs when currencies spike following a change in expectations and then partially decline without returning to the previous level.
elTOQUE noted that since 2022, this pattern has repeated several times in 2022, 2023, and 2024, with speculative peaks followed by corrections.
In 2024, the outlet also identified coordinated digital campaigns from government-associated accounts aimed at temporarily distorting market perceptions and discrediting the Representative Rate of the Informal Market (TRMi).
In 2025, however, the movement of dollars and euros has been more sustained and less abrupt, although the recent drop in their values might signal another correction.
elTOQUE concluded by warning that, while official propaganda might cause temporary drops in the rate, the structural causes of peso devaluation—inflation, fiscal deficit, and distrust—remain unchanged, and the market eventually adjusts to its reality.
Understanding Cuba's Currency Crisis
What is causing the rise in the dollar and euro prices in Cuba's black market?
The increase is driven by persistent inflation, a lack of foreign currency, distrust in the national peso, and the limited ability to conduct formal transactions due to cash shortages and banking issues.
Why does the Cuban black market react quickly to changes?
The Cuban black market is highly sensitive to any changes in supply or the perceived stability of the peso, leading to rapid adjustments in currency exchange rates.
What is "exchange rate overshooting"?
Exchange rate overshooting is an economic phenomenon where currency values spike due to a change in expectations and then partially decline, without returning to the previous level.