With less than 24 hours remaining before the midterm elections, a series of polls released this Monday indicate that Democratic candidates are leading their Republican counterparts in five out of the seven states that will determine control of the U.S. Senate on November 3, 2026.
The most comprehensive survey, conducted by The New York Times and Siena College between October 23 and November 1, positions Democrats ahead in Michigan, Texas, Maine, Ohio, and Kansas. Polls from CNN and NBC News show a similar trend, though they differ slightly in the extent of the Democrats' lead depending on the polling firm.
Michigan shows the most significant lead, with Democrat Abdul El-Sayed ahead of Republican Mike Rogers by 53% to 42%, marking an 11-point difference. Following Michigan, in Texas, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton by 50% to 43%, and in Maine, former state senator Troy Jackson is ahead of Republican Senator Susan Collins by 51% to 45%.
The most surprising results come from two traditionally Republican states. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton is leading Senator Roger Marshall 49% to 44%, marking a potential historic shift for a state that hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932. Similarly, Talarico's lead in Texas is noteworthy, as the state hasn't elected a Democratic senator since 1988.
In Ohio, former Senator Sherrod Brown leads Republican Jon Husted 49% to 44%, with CNN's average poll boosting this figure to 50%-45%. Meanwhile, in Alaska and Iowa, races remain tight: Mary Peltola narrowly leads Dan Sullivan by two points (48%-46%), and Josh Turek is in a statistical tie with Ashley Hinson (48%-47%). The NYT/Siena survey's margin of error varies, from 3.3 points in Texas to 4.8 points in Alaska.
The political climate presents challenges for Republicans. According to NBC News' average, Trump’s approval rating stands at 38%, with a 60% disapproval. Democrats possess a 52% to 44% advantage in generic congressional preference. Only 17% of Americans approve of the president's handling of living costs, a major voter concern.
To regain the Senate, Democrats need to achieve a net gain of four seats, starting from a minority of 47 compared to 53 Republicans. The path is tough, as they must win in states Trump won by double digits in 2024.
The Michigan race received a jolt on Sunday when Democratic Congresswoman Haley Stevens unexpectedly endorsed Republican Rogers, triggering a record fundraising day for El-Sayed: $2.4 million from over 65,000 donors in a single day. "This historic fundraising is a testament to the enthusiasm Abdul’s movement has inspired among Michiganders," said campaign spokesman Cole Wozniak.
Both Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson dismissed the legitimacy of the polls. "Ignore the surveys. The polls are wrong nationwide," Johnson proclaimed at a rally in Dubuque, Iowa. Trump, anticipating his strategy in case of defeat, stated, "I think we're going to do very well, but if we don't win, I will veto everything."
Experts caution that polls underestimated the Republican vote in 2016 and 2024, and this year, last-minute deciders tend to favor the president’s party by nine points, according to NYT/Siena. Don Levy, executive director of the Siena Institute, emphasized that either party could end up controlling the chamber, given the closeness of several races.
Key Insights on the Senate Race
How many states are crucial for determining Senate control?
Seven states are pivotal in deciding Senate control, with Democrats currently leading in five of them according to recent polls.
Which states show surprising Democratic leads?
Democrats are showing unexpected leads in Kansas and Texas, both traditionally Republican strongholds, which could signal significant shifts.
What challenges do Republicans face according to recent polls?
Republicans face challenges due to low approval ratings for Trump and a general preference for Democrats in congressional races, compounded by tight races in key states.