On the eve of the midterm elections set for November 3, Florida Republicans are experiencing a level of anxiety they haven't felt in years. Anticipated voter turnout figures aren't aligning with their expectations, and the possibility of losing a state race—once thought unthinkable—is now being quietly acknowledged, according to an analysis by Axios.
A veteran member of the Florida Republican Party described the internal atmosphere as being "on edge." While it's not outright panic, there's a palpable tension driven by worrying numbers: Republicans lead early voting by just 3 percentage points over Democrats, a much smaller margin than in the last two general elections, despite having an 11-point voter registration advantage and an absolute lead of 1.5 million people.
The contest causing the most concern is the gubernatorial race involving Congressman Byron Donalds, who is up against Democrat David Jolly. Although Donalds holds a slight lead in most polls, internal estimates from both parties shared with Axios suggest he could be trailing by as many as 500,000 votes in early voting.
To turn this around, Donalds would need to secure a two-to-one win on Election Day, a feat Republicans have achieved in the past—most notably in 2022—but which appears more challenging this cycle.
Challenges in Key Florida Regions
The weakness is more pronounced in the 17 counties of the Panhandle and rural northern Florida that Donalds lost in the Republican primary. Here, GOP participation is down by 3.2 points compared to 2022, whereas in counties where he did win, the drop is only 1.1 points, according to political scientist Michael McDonald from the University of Florida.
Governor Ron DeSantis didn't hide his concern last week: "I don't necessarily want to be the bearer of bad news, but I don't think turnout is as strong as we'd like to see."
Demographic Gaps Highlighted
Demographic numbers paint an even grimmer picture. Among active Democratic voters, 50% of whites, 39% of blacks, and 34% of Hispanics have already voted early; among active Republicans, these figures fall to 35%, 21%, and 28%, respectively. The gap among young voters is even starker: 25% of registered Democrats under 30 have voted, compared to just 9% of Republicans in that age group.
Democrats have already surpassed their 2022 early and mail-in voting totals in 15 Florida counties, while Republicans have done so in only four. Independent voters are also leaning towards Democrats by double digits in nearly all state polls.
National Implications
In Miami's District 27, Cuban-American Representative María Elvira Salazar is facing a tight race against Democrat Eliott Rodríguez, with warning signs in the district's voting patterns. Nationally, the environment is so challenging for the GOP that states like Texas, Kansas, Ohio, Alaska, and even South Carolina are appearing competitive.
Despite these challenges, Republican leaders maintain confidence in historical trends. "We always win on Election Day, and we know how to do it," said Evan Power, chairman of the Florida Republican Party. "Many of these nerves are because the last time we had a close election was eight years ago, and people have forgotten what that looks like here."
A Republican consultant involved in one of the state races summed up the mood with a phrase that captures the uncertainty of the moment: "Just a few weeks ago, I didn't think I'd be feeling this way. It's not panic. At least, not yet."
Florida Midterm Election Concerns
Why are Florida Republicans anxious about the midterms?
Florida Republicans are anxious because early voting numbers are not meeting their expectations, and there's a real possibility of losing a state race, which was previously considered unlikely.
Which race is causing the most concern for Florida Republicans?
The gubernatorial race involving Congressman Byron Donalds against Democrat David Jolly is causing the most concern, with estimates suggesting Donalds could be trailing significantly in early voting.
How does voter turnout among demographics differ in Florida's midterms?
Democrats are outperforming Republicans in early voting across various demographics, including whites, blacks, and Hispanics. The gap is particularly wide among younger voters under 30.