Donald Trump Predicts the End of Cuba's Regime by the Conclusion of His Presidency

In a recent interview with journalist Benny Johnson, former President Donald Trump once again set a timeline for the end of Cuba's regime. He assured that the situation on the island would be resolved "definitively" before he leaves office.

This is not the first time Trump has made predictions about Cuba. Back in July, he mentioned a two-month timeframe, but now he extends it to as much as two and a half years.

Referring to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Trump stated, "We have Marco watching it very closely. His parents are from Cuba. And this will be resolved definitely within these next two and a half years. Actually, before that."

This promise comes more than three months after a previous declaration that raised expectations among Cubans. On July 15, during an interview with Fox News' Trey Yingst, Trump declared that "many things will happen in Cuba in the next perhaps two months."

Yet, by mid-September, no significant political change had occurred in Havana. Trump had not explicitly promised the fall of the regime within two months, but he did hint at unspecified events.

Heightened Pressure, Minimal Change

During that period, Washington announced new sanctions, heightened pressure on key Cuban sectors, and maintained dialogue with representatives in Cuba. However, the political transformation Trump aims for remains elusive.

In early September, the U.S. sanctioned a grandson of Raúl Castro, Cuba’s Foreign Bank, and several state entities. A couple of weeks later, measures were expanded against military institutions and nickel-related enterprises.

On September 22, Trump told the United Nations that Rubio was holding talks with Cuba and suggested his Secretary of State had found a solution. Just four days later, however, he dismissed the need for military intervention, opting for a negotiated agreement instead.

An Uncertain Timeline Linked to Iran

The timeline for action against Cuba is further complicated by Trump's repeated linkage to the completion of military operations against Iran.

On May 1, Trump stated the U.S. would act on Cuba "almost immediately" after the situation with Iran was resolved, imagining a U.S. aircraft carrier off Cuba's coast to force the regime's surrender.

During an October 23 rally in Fort Myers, he reiterated this plan, saying U.S. warships would pass by Cuba on their return from the Middle East and he would send Rubio to "seal the deal."

In his interview with Johnson, Trump again stressed the sequence: first conclude operations against Iran, then focus on Cuba, linking its future once more to the Venezuelan precedent.

However, Washington has not announced an end date for the Iran campaign nor provided a concrete timeline for achieving political change in Cuba. It remains unclear whether Trump's timeframe refers to negotiations, a potential leadership exit, or a system overhaul.

The Battle Over Time

While Trump insists that the Cuban regime won't survive his presidency, Havana is betting on enduring until U.S. political circumstances shift.

Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla told the New York Times that the Cuban regime would withstand the pressure "for as long as necessary," confident that Washington will eventually alter its strategy, or the current administration's term will expire.

"U.S. policy towards Cuba will change. It will have to change; it's inevitable," the minister asserted.

A recent CNN analysis indicated that Cuban officials hope a Republican setback in the November 3 midterm elections, combined with the prolonged conflict with Iran, will push Cuba down the list of U.S. priorities.

For the regime, buying time is once again the strategy. For its leaders, surviving another two years could mean a chance for political survival. For millions of Cubans, however, it means prolonging a crisis marked by shortages, blackouts, inflation, and deteriorating public services.

Repeated U.S. promises have also fueled skepticism. When Trump announced in July that significant events would occur within two months, many Cubans reacted with irony and frustration. A particularly telling question emerged on social media: "Will any Cubans be alive by then?"

The new presidential reference points to the end of his potential second term, January 20, 2029, though Trump assures the resolution will come sooner.

For now, Washington and Havana appear to be waging a battle against the clock: Trump vows the regime won't last until his departure from the White House, while Cuban leaders hope to outlast his presidency. The ones who cannot afford to wait indefinitely are the Cubans enduring daily the repercussions of this standoff.