A significant majority of Cuban Americans residing in Miami-Dade, specifically six out of ten, find it highly unlikely that they would return to live in Cuba, even if the island were to undergo a political transformation.
This insight comes from the 2026 edition of the FIU Cuba Poll, the longest-running survey series on Cuban American opinions in South Florida, spearheaded by sociologists Guillermo J. Grenier and Qing Lai from Florida International University (FIU).
The comprehensive report inquired about the likelihood of respondents relocating to Cuba should a political change occur.
A striking 63% deemed such a move as highly improbable.
An additional 15% viewed it as "not very likely," 14% considered it "somewhat likely," while a mere 8% found it "very likely."
Overall, 78% dismissed or found a permanent return unlikely, compared to 22% who entertained the possibility.
Economic Improvements Offer Little Incentive
The survey also posed a related question about returning in the event of an economic improvement.
Under these circumstances, resistance was even more pronounced: 70% believed it was highly improbable to return, and just 16% found it probable.
A hypothetical political change increased the proportion willing to consider returning from 16% to 22%, yet the majority still viewed a return as unlikely.
Among those surveyed aged 76 or older, 79% considered a return to Cuba improbable even with economic improvements.
Who Might Consider Returning?
A breakdown by subgroups highlights generational and migratory differences.
In the event of a political change, those most open to returning were individuals who arrived after 2020 (39%), non-U.S. citizens (36%), and those under 40 years old (25%).
Conversely, migrants who arrived before 1995 (18%) and respondents aged 76 or older (17%) were the least likely to consider returning in the face of a political change.
Ties to the Island, Yet Little Desire to Return
A significant 71% of respondents have close family members in Cuba, a figure that rises to 92% among those who arrived after 2020.
Additionally, 60% sent food or other goods to Cuba in the past year, and 45% sent remittances.
Despite these connections, the desire for permanent return remains a minority stance.
The survey also highlights that 89% of participants hold U.S. citizenship.
Expectations for Political Change in Cuba
The survey gauged when Cuban Americans expect political change on the island.
Approximately 29% believe it will never happen; 22% foresee it occurring within a year, and 19% anticipate it within two to five years.
In total, around 40% expect change within a five-year timeframe, while 11% believe changes are already underway.
Republicans (27%) are twice as likely as Democrats (13%) to expect change within a year.
Respondents aged 76 and older are the most pessimistic, with 39% selecting the "never" option.
Survey Methodology
The 2026 FIU Cuba Poll, the seventeenth edition in a series launched in 1991, is based on a weighted sample of 1,004 Cuban-origin adults living in Miami-Dade.
Interviews were conducted from September 4 to 29 via a bilingual telephone system; 62.9% were conducted in Spanish.
The maximum reported margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points, with a 95% confidence level. The results should not be automatically extrapolated to the entire Cuban diaspora.
Insights on Cuban Americans' Perspectives
What percentage of Miami-Dade Cuban Americans find returning to Cuba improbable?
63% of Cuban Americans in Miami-Dade find it highly unlikely to return to Cuba, even if political changes occur.
How does economic improvement affect the likelihood of returning to Cuba?
An economic improvement scenario sees even more resistance, with 70% finding it highly improbable to return.
Which group is most open to returning to Cuba?
Those who arrived after 2020, non-U.S. citizens, and individuals under 40 are most open to the idea of returning.