When the United States sought to facilitate discussions between Delcy Rodríguez's government and the Venezuelan opposition, they didn't turn to María Corina Machado, the leader with significant popular backing. Instead, they approached Dinorah Figuera, a politician living in exile in Spain, working as a home caregiver.
According to NBC News, Washington reached out to Figuera in April, proposing her return to Venezuela to lead talks on reconciliation and the conditions for future democratic elections.
Figuera, who serves as the president of the National Assembly elected in 2015, agreed to engage directly with Jorge Rodríguez, the brother of the interim president and a prominent figure in the Chavismo movement.
Considering a Cuban Negotiator for Change
This scenario raises new questions about Cuba's potential path to transition. In previous analyses, CiberCuba explored the concept of a "Cuban Delcy," a regime insider capable of negotiating from within, as well as the idea of a "bolichico," an economic operator to aid in transforming the business landscape controlled by GAESA.
These ideas, inspired by Venezuelan precedents, do not identify specific figures or indicate inevitable components for a Cuban transition. However, they prompt another question: who would represent the Cuban opposition and civil society in negotiations with the regime and the United States?
Potential Representatives for Cuban Civil Society
One potential candidate is Laritza Diversent, a lawyer and executive director of Cubalex, an organization focused on human rights, documenting repression, and providing legal aid to victims. Her expertise in judicial independence, political prisoners, and institutional guarantees could be crucial for establishing the conditions for a democratic transition.
In a July interview with CiberCuba, Diversent emphasized that the fall of the regime wouldn't automatically ensure democracy. She stressed that civil society must prepare to avoid a hasty transition or one that repeats past mistakes.
Significantly, like Figuera, Diversent has publicly stated she has no aspirations for government positions, as reported by TOQUE in February 2025. The Venezuelan leader has long advocated for separating those negotiating transitional conditions from those aiming to govern afterward.
Diversent has consistently highlighted the importance of preparing civil society for the transition process and ensuring that reconciliation does not equate to impunity.
The Complexities of Negotiating Without Electoral Mandate
The Venezuelan case demonstrates a critical distinction between negotiating and governing. Figuera has acknowledged Machado's leadership, asserting her role is to pave the way to democracy, not to compete for the presidency.
"It's illogical to be both a presidential candidate and a negotiator simultaneously, as they are distinct tasks," she explained to NBC.
Figuera also recognized the challenges of negotiating with a regime accused of torture and crimes against humanity. For her, reconciliation cannot imply impunity.
Her role was feasible due to Washington's support and her institutional background. However, Machado's return to Venezuela, welcomed by throngs of supporters, has introduced new tensions and demands on the negotiations.
Cuba faces even more complexity in this separation. Unlike Venezuela, where the opposition won national elections and maintained internationally recognized political structures, the Cuban regime has thwarted the consolidation of democratically elected opposition institutions.
No figure in Cuba commands support comparable to María Corina Machado's.
Exploring Diverse Representation in Negotiations
Currently, there's no public indication that Washington seeks a figure like Figuera for Cuba. The U.S. maintains contacts with Havana, but the regime persists in dismissing any negotiations that challenge its political system.
However, if U.S. pressure leads to talks about a transition, representation issues will inevitably arise. Should Washington select a negotiator, as it did in Venezuela, or should the Cuban opposition first decide who can represent them?
A viable approach might be a diverse representation, bringing together political leaders, civic organization representatives, transitional justice experts, and voices from the island's opposition.
Figures like Diversent could help ensure guarantees for political prisoner releases, rights restoration, judicial independence, and necessary justice mechanisms to prevent negotiated reconciliation from turning into impunity.
The Venezuelan precedent offers possibilities, but also warnings. U.S. recognition of certain interlocutors doesn't automatically grant them legitimacy to represent an entire society.
A negotiation that facilitates the end of a dictatorship doesn't guarantee that those in power will willingly build a democracy.
The question of a potential "Cuban Dinorah" is not just about who might negotiate with the regime, but whom they would represent, with what mandate, and under what guarantees.
Potential Negotiators for Cuban Transition
Who could be a potential negotiator for Cuba's transition?
Laritza Diversent, a lawyer and executive director of Cubalex, is one candidate. Her expertise in human rights and judicial independence could be valuable for a democratic transition.
What challenges does Cuba face in negotiating a transition?
Cuba lacks a figure with wide support comparable to María Corina Machado in Venezuela, and the regime has prevented the consolidation of democratically elected opposition institutions.
Why is the Venezuelan precedent significant for Cuba?
The Venezuelan case illustrates the distinction between negotiating and governing and highlights the challenges of negotiating with a regime accused of human rights abuses.