Former President Donald Trump has hinted at his willingness to engage in a three-way summit with Russian leader Vladimir Putin and China's Xi Jinping to discuss nuclear arms. However, national security experts caution that the likelihood of reaching any substantial agreements remains slim, as reported by Axios.
The idea was floated on October 19, when Trump expressed openness to trilateral discussions regarding "nuclear weapons and denuclearization," emphasizing that the focus would not be on the war in Ukraine.
Trump conditioned his participation on Beijing's stance, stating, "If President Xi wants to hold it, I would attend." This proposal gained traction following a phone call between Trump and Putin on October 9, where they explored the possibility of such a meeting.
The potential venue for this unprecedented gathering could be the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders' summit in Shenzhen, scheduled for November 18-19, which Trump is expected to attend. Nevertheless, as of Tuesday, the trilateral meeting remained unconfirmed, with the Kremlin noting that there were no concrete proposals or agreed-upon agenda, and China stating it had no confirmed information about the meeting.
A Historical First: A Trilateral Meeting
While Trump, Putin, and Xi have engaged in bilateral talks at various forums such as the G20, APEC, or direct summits, a formal joint meeting among the three has never occurred.
Trump and Xi last met at the White House in September, where the U.S. president once again suggested trilateral arms control talks; he held a bilateral summit with Putin in Alaska in August 2025.
Nuclear Tensions at Their Peak
The proposal arises amid heightened nuclear tensions. The New START treaty, the last binding agreement between the United States and Russia on strategic arsenals, expired in February 2026 without a successor, leaving the two largest nuclear powers without formal restrictions for the first time since 1972.
Russia had suspended its participation in the accord in 2023. Meanwhile, China has never entered into bilateral arms control agreements with either of the other two powers and is undergoing the largest expansion of its arsenal in history, growing from about 260 warheads in 2016 to approximately 620 today, with Pentagon projections suggesting 1,000 by 2030.
Globally, nine countries possess a total of 12,100 nuclear warheads, according to the Arms Control Association. The vast majority are held by the U.S. and Russia, with China as a distant but significant third.
Mixed Reactions and Skepticism
Secretary of State Marco Rubio described the dialogue among the three leaders as "positive" and dismissed criticism of engaging with Moscow and Beijing. Yet, analysts remain doubtful.
"The nuclear threat is worsening; every country is either increasing or modernizing their nuclear weapons. There's a pressing need for this," stated Jon Wolfsthal, a nuclear policy researcher at Pax Sapiens. "The chances of moving from a whim — 'Let's meet and denuclearize' — to a comprehensive and verifiable agreement are extremely low," he added.
Andrea Stricker, deputy director of the nonproliferation program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, acknowledged that the summit "could be the start of a longer conversation" and that the diplomatic effort is "positive," but warned, "I would be very surprised if China agreed to nuclear arms control at this time. It’s not even clear that Russia and the United States are genuinely seeking a new accord."
"The only thing less likely than a trilateral summit on nuclear issues would be meaningful outcomes that matter more than the optics," summed up Chris Estep, an Indo-Pacific security expert at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. "Sometimes, when something has never happened before, there's a pretty good reason for it."
Key Questions on the Trilateral Nuclear Summit
What are the chances of the trilateral summit taking place?
While Trump has expressed interest, the summit remains unconfirmed as of now. Both Russia and China have not agreed to any concrete proposals or agenda.
Why is the New START treaty significant?
The New START was the last binding agreement between the U.S. and Russia on strategic arsenals, providing formal restrictions on nuclear arms, which expired in February 2026 without renewal.
What is China's position on nuclear arms control?
China has never been part of bilateral arms control agreements with the U.S. or Russia and is currently expanding its nuclear arsenal significantly.