Trump's Strategy for Venezuela's Political Transition

During a confidential phone press conference on Monday, a senior State Department official laid out a comprehensive plan for Venezuela's political transition, as backed by Washington. The strategy involves overhauling judicial and electoral institutions prior to calling elections and urging interim President Delcy Rodríguez to formally declare the presidency permanently vacant.

The outlined roadmap consists of three sequential steps. First, the Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ) must be renewed before mid-December 2026. Following this, the National Electoral Council (CNE) should undergo reform shortly after. The most critical step involves Rodríguez officially declaring the presidency absolutely vacant, which would constitutionally trigger a six-month period to hold elections, targeting the latter half of 2027 for the vote.

The official underscored the significance of this order, stating, "You cannot have a free and fair election accepted by both sides and all parties in a country while that infrastructure is in place. That infrastructure must be dismantled and replaced with something new."

Highlighting the urgency for institutional reform, the official recounted the failure of the negotiated process during the Biden administration in 2024, which granted irreversible concessions—such as sanction relief and the release of Cilia Flores' convicted nephews and businessman Alex Saab—yet elections proceeded under the unchanged TSJ and CNE, rendering a legitimate result impossible.

Washington describes the TSJ as Venezuela's most powerful institution. "It has long been an instrument of the regime and Maduro, and 2015 really amplified that. In fact, it was the TSJ that ruled the National Assembly illegal," the official noted. Regarding the CNE, it was emphasized that its role extends far beyond election administration: "It also decides which parties can register and who can run. That's how they disqualified María Corina, for example."

In the fourth round of talks this week, the 2015 National Assembly—representing the opposition—and the PSUV, through Jorge Rodríguez, agreed to form a 23-member Judicial Nominations Committee, inaugurated on October 22, comprising 11 deputies and 12 civil society representatives. This committee is tasked with proposing 32 magistrates for the TSJ—an increase from 20 following a legal reform in August—with a December 11 deadline to present them to the National Assembly.

The official praised the committee's composition, noting, "Almost entirely law professors and individuals of recognized prestige, not political actors per se, so that's a very positive development."

The CNE reform will follow a similar process through an expert committee, without requiring parliamentary ratification. "Once these two elements are established, the new TSJ by year's end and the new CNE shortly after, Rodríguez should declare the presidency permanently vacant," the official clarified.

Washington's ultimate goal is clear: "To ensure elections where, once held, the losing side acknowledges that the process was fair."

This process unfolds amid heightened political tension. On Sunday, María Corina Machado returned to Venezuela after nearly ten months abroad, traveling approximately 400 kilometers in a caravan from Barquisimeto to Caracas, where she was greeted by thousands of supporters. Rodríguez dismissed her return as a "show." Meanwhile, Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned, "I believe we are making real progress in this regard. But if anyone tries to derail the process, it will cause significant harm to Venezuela."

The next round of negotiations is scheduled for November 11-15, with CNE reform as the central agenda item.