On Monday, Miguel Díaz-Canel extended his congratulations to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva following Lula's triumph in the Brazilian presidential runoff elections held on Sunday. This gesture underscores both the relief felt by the Cuban regime and the precariousness of its regional alliances.
Lula emerged victorious in the runoff with 51.79% of the votes, surpassing Flávio Bolsonaro's 48.21%, as reported by the Supreme Electoral Court with all ballots counted. This win marks a remarkable comeback after Lula had trailed in the initial round on October 4.
Díaz-Canel took to the social media platform X to address the newly-elected president as "dear brother," emphasizing that the victory "ensures the continuation of peace, sovereignty, and social justice pursued by the Brazilian people under your leadership."
In another message, he added, "Brazil can count on Cuba in building the unity and integration of our great Latin American and Caribbean homeland."
The enthusiastic greeting sharply contrasts with the reality of a bilateral relationship fraught with tension and unresolved debts.
Cuba owes $676 million to Brazil, linked to loans from the National Bank for Economic and Social Development (BNDES) for the construction of the Mariel port, a project carried out by the construction firm Odebrecht, which was embroiled in the Lava Jato scandal. Payments have been halted since May 2018, and by May 2026, the Brazilian government acknowledged they do not expect to recover these funds.
The Lula set to assume his fourth term on January 5, 2027, is not the unwavering ally he once was during the eras of Fidel and Raúl Castro.
In 2024, facing the Venezuelan elections, Lula refused to acknowledge Maduro's victory due to a lack of verifiable evidence and described the Venezuelan regime as "highly unpleasant" and "authoritarian-leaning," implicitly challenging the legitimacy of regimes like Cuba's.
Havana's regional isolation has intensified rapidly. Argentina voted against Cuba at the UN regarding the U.S. embargo resolution, Ecuador abstained, and Bolivia exited ALBA following the electoral defeat of socialism, all within the past year.
This diplomatic erosion is compounded by an unprecedented energy crisis.
Venezuela halted its oil shipments to Cuba as of November 2025, followed by Russia in October of the same year, and Mexico in January 2026. Cuba produces only around 40,000 barrels daily, far short of the 90,000 to 110,000 barrels required, with just one fuel shipment arriving in April 2026 out of the eight needed monthly, leading to blackouts exceeding 30 consecutive hours.
Amid these challenges, Brazil remains one of the few regional powers maintaining ties with Havana: in 2026, it sent approximately 20,800 tons of food, donated medicine for about 1,000 patients, and delivered 48 tons of powdered milk to Santiago de Cuba.
Nevertheless, a new BNDES law enacted in March 2026 restricts loans to delinquent countries, closing the door to new credits for Cuba and leaving humanitarian aid as the only viable avenue for bilateral relations.
Flávio Bolsonaro has rejected the runoff result and announced plans to contest the election, adding to the uncertainty of Brazil's political landscape as Lula's inauguration approaches in January 2027.
Frequently Asked Questions on Brazil-Cuba Relations
What is the significance of Lula's victory for Cuba?
Lula's victory is significant for Cuba as it represents a potential political ally in a region where Cuba faces increasing isolation. It also underscores the need for Cuba to secure regional support amid growing economic and diplomatic challenges.
How much does Cuba owe Brazil, and why?
Cuba owes Brazil $676 million, primarily due to loans from Brazil's National Bank for Economic and Social Development (BNDES) for the Mariel port construction. Payments have been suspended since May 2018, with little expectation of recovery by Brazil.
How has Cuba's regional isolation affected its economy?
Cuba's regional isolation has exacerbated its economic challenges, particularly seen in the energy sector. With key partners like Venezuela and Russia halting oil shipments, Cuba faces severe fuel shortages and prolonged blackouts, limiting its economic productivity.