A post claiming a 60% likelihood of seismic activity in southern Cuba within the next 70 hours has stirred anxiety among social media users.
However, Enrique Diego Arango Arias, head of the National Seismological Service of Cuba at the National Center for Seismological Research (CENAIS), refuted this claim on Monday. He assured that the Oriente Fault is behaving normally, with no unusual signs to support such a forecast.
In a Facebook post, Arango emphasized that this information is not sourced from any scientific institution and lacks supportive evidence.
"WARNING: A notice is circulating about a significant seismic activity probability south of Cuba, which does not originate from any seismological institution and is without any evidence," Arango Arias stated.
The scientist noted that several people had reached out to him after encountering the warning, concerned about the potential for a major earthquake in Cuban territory.
The image accompanying the information displays a message attributed to a page called "Geomagnetic Storm Alert," which allegedly predicts seismic activity in southern Cuba and other segments of the Caribbean Plate.
"Seismic probability 60% southern Cuba segment, internal segments Caribbean Plate. 70 hrs interaction period," reads the message captured in the screenshot.
Arango Arias was firm in explaining what Cuban specialists are actually recording.
"In our Oriente Fault, everything is very calm, with no indication of any seismic anomaly at this moment," he confirmed.
His statement aims to clarify that, according to CENAIS data, there is no evidence of extraordinary seismic activity that would warrant the alarm being spread on social media.
Can Earthquakes Be Predicted?
The United States Geological Survey (USGS) explains that scientists currently lack a method to accurately predict when and where a major earthquake will occur.
Seismological studies can identify active faults, analyze recorded movements, and estimate the likelihood of occurrences over extended periods, typically years or decades.
However, these seismic hazard assessments do not equate to announcing a specific probability of an earthquake occurring in the coming hours.
An accurate seismic prediction would need to specify the date, location, and magnitude of the event. Science has yet to develop a validated procedure for determining these details in advance with reliability.
Therefore, experts advise skepticism towards messages that present eye-catching percentages or exact timelines without citing verifiable studies and recognized scientific sources.
Frequent False Earthquake Alarms in Cuba
This debunked warning surfaces just two months after an incident that alarmed several Cuban provinces.
On August 18, a false earthquake alert reached numerous mobile phones, causing some people to evacuate homes and workplaces fearing a strong seismic event.
The alert appeared on Android devices across various provinces, including Havana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, Ciego de Ávila, Camagüey, Las Tunas, Holguín, Granma, and Santiago de Cuba.
Arango himself intervened to clarify that the National Seismological Service had not issued that warning and that their stations had not detected a major earthquake warranting the message.
Confusion grew with suggestions that the notification might have originated from Android's seismic alert system. However, Google later denied that its system had detected or sent alerts about an earthquake in Cuba.
State-run ETECSA eventually attributed the incident to a technical-human error during network tests, though Arango publicly questioned this explanation and expressed doubts about the incident's circumstances.
In July, Arango also had to dismiss alarmist predictions linking earthquakes in Venezuela to imminent seismic activity in Cuba.
The expert explained that these warnings did not stem from recognized scientific institutions and that there was insufficient evidence to announce an earthquake in Cuba based on events in the South American country.
Understanding Earthquake Risks in Cuba
What is the current seismic activity status in Cuba?
According to Enrique Diego Arango Arias, the Oriente Fault in Cuba is currently stable with no signs of seismic anomalies.
Can earthquakes be predicted accurately?
No, scientists do not have a reliable method to predict the exact timing and location of earthquakes. Seismological assessments estimate long-term probabilities rather than specific forecasts.
Has Cuba experienced false earthquake alarms before?
Yes, there have been previous instances of false earthquake alerts in Cuba, including one in August that led to public alarm.