The outlook for Cuba's economy in 2026 has taken a turn for the worse, with the United Nations' Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (CEPAL) forecasting a significant 13% decline in the nation's goods exports. This stark prediction contrasts sharply with the anticipated growth in international trade expected across the broader region.
This expectation is detailed in CEPAL's latest report, "International Trade Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean, 2026: The Importance of Modern Service Exports and How to Promote Them," which was released last Thursday.
The report not only foresees a reduction in Cuba's foreign sales but also projects a 10% decrease in the value of imported goods, highlighting further challenges in the island's trade dynamics.
Data found in Table I.11 of the full CEPAL report is based on projections for the end of 2026 rather than conclusive results. This forecast places Cuba among the Latin American and Caribbean nations experiencing one of the most significant percentage declines in export values, at a time when regional growth is estimated at 20%.
While the region as a whole might see a 20% increase in goods exports, Cuba is expected to face a 13% contraction. The gap between these changes is a substantial 33 percentage points.
Factors Behind the Trade Decline
CEPAL breaks down trade variations into three components: prices, volume, and total value. This differentiation helps identify whether a change is due to the quantity of goods traded or their prices. For Cuba, the commission predicts a 16% decrease in the volume of goods exported, despite a 3% increase in export prices.
Therefore, the expected 13% reduction in export value is attributed mainly to a drop in export volumes, rather than falling product prices. This suggests that Cuba will sell fewer goods internationally, though the average price of these exports would see a slight rise.
This trend is crucial for an economy reliant on foreign currency earnings to finance international purchases, acquire raw materials, and sustain parts of its production activities. It's important to note that the forecast focuses solely on goods trade, excluding all income sources from abroad, such as tourism and other services, which are categorized differently.
Import Challenges Add to Economic Woes
The outlook for imports is equally bleak. CEPAL anticipates a 10% reduction in import values by 2026, alongside a 12% drop in the volume of goods purchased from abroad. Conversely, import prices are expected to rise by 2%.
This means Cuba would import fewer products but pay slightly higher average prices for them. This combination is concerning because imports are vital for meeting the consumption needs of the population, supporting businesses, and maintaining public services.
Essential imported goods might include food, fuels, medicines, equipment, spare parts, and raw materials. However, CEPAL's report does not specify which categories would primarily drive the forecasted contraction for Cuba.
Regional Trade Trends vs. Cuba's Struggles
The report reflects a simultaneous decrease in the quantities of goods Cuba trades internationally. This stands in contrast to the anticipated performance for Latin America and the Caribbean as a whole.
CEPAL projects a 20% increase in the regional value of goods exports, driven by both price improvements and an uptick in traded quantities. Additionally, a 16% rise in regional import values is expected, linked to both higher purchase volumes and price increases.
Regional expansion won't be uniform. For instance, Mexico might see a 26% rise in export values, Brazil 16%, and Peru 30%. The Caribbean will also show varied results, with the Dominican Republic seeing a 14% export growth, Jamaica a modest 2%, while Cuba faces a 13% decline.
Among 33 countries analyzed by CEPAL, only Saint Kitts and Nevis (24%), Dominica (20%), and Panama (14%, excluding the Colon Free Zone) face sharper drops than Cuba in export values.
This disparity highlights that despite the region's trade expansion prospects, several countries struggle to capitalize on this momentum. Part of the regional growth is attributed to rising international prices for basic products and strengthened trade ties with Asian markets.
Noteworthy contributions to increased export values in 2026 are expected from the mining, oil, and manufacturing sectors. However, Cuba's scenario diverges as the projected price improvement for its exports won't offset the significant reduction in traded volumes.
This new trade forecast emerges amid ongoing economic difficulties on the island. In late September, economists from the University of Havana warned of another potential contraction in Cuba's economy in 2026, prolonging the decline in productive activities.
While that analysis covered broader GDP outlooks, CEPAL's report provides a specific evaluation of goods trade. Both indicators measure different economic aspects: GDP reflects goods and services production, whereas trade statistics offer insight into international sales and purchases.
Key Questions on Cuba's Economic Forecast
What is CEPAL's projection for Cuba's goods exports in 2026?
CEPAL forecasts a 13% decline in the value of Cuba's goods exports by 2026.
Why are Cuba's export values expected to decrease?
The decrease in export values is primarily due to a 16% reduction in the volume of goods exported, despite a slight increase in export prices.
How does Cuba's trade forecast compare to the broader region?
While the region is expected to see a 20% increase in goods export value, Cuba is projected to face a 13% decline.
What impact will the forecasted import changes have on Cuba?
Cuba's import values are expected to decrease by 10%, with a 12% drop in volume, meaning fewer goods will be imported at slightly higher prices, affecting consumption and public services.