The Cuban Electric Union (UNE) has projected that power outages could reach a peak of 1,680 megawatts (MW) during the evening's high-demand period this Saturday, as outlined in an official statement shared on social media by the state-run entity.
The root of the issue is systemic: the National Electric System (SEN) has merely 1,250 MW available against a forecasted demand of 2,900 MW, leaving a gap of 1,650 MW which directly results in blackouts affecting millions of Cubans.
Lázaro Guerra Hernández, the Director General of Electricity at the Ministry of Energy and Mines, provided a technical update on the state-run Canal Caribe. He noted that by noon, the estimated impact would be 1,350 MW, and by 8 a.m., 1,229 MW were already without service across the nation.
"We are anticipating that during the system's peak demand, there will be 1,250 MW available against a forecasted peak demand of 2,900 MW, resulting in a service impact of 1,680 MW," Guerra Hernández stated.
Friday's situation was even more severe, with the actual maximum impact reaching 1,886 MW, nearly matching the forecast of 1,880 MW predicted by the same official.
Gradual Improvement with Generator Reincorporation
The slight improvement this Saturday compared to the previous day is attributed to the nighttime return of three generating units that had been offline: the Antonio Guiteras thermoelectric plant in Matanzas—the largest in the country with a nominal capacity of around 300 MW—a unit in Santa Cruz del Norte, and unit 8 of the Máximo Gómez thermoelectric plant in Mariel.
The Antonio Guiteras plant was reported to be generating 155 MW and stabilizing parameters, according to UNE itself. Its recent history highlights the system's fragility: it was synchronized on October 4th after a reheater failure, reached about 180 MW the next day, and was disconnected again on Friday due to a malfunction in a steam tempering line.
"Today's impacts will undoubtedly remain high throughout the day, though they will be lesser than those experienced yesterday due to the incorporation of these three units," Guerra Hernández warned.
Fuel Shortages Aggravate Power Crisis
Guerra Hernández also disclosed a detail illustrating the depth of the crisis: more than 1,200 MW of installed capacity remains technically available but completely inactive due to the lack of imported fuel.
"To significantly reduce the impacts, it's necessary to have fuel for the units we have stopped—over 1,200 MW—which are technically available but lack imported fuel to generate electricity with these technologies," he pointed out.
The entire country's power generation currently relies on crude oil extracted from Cuban fields, accompanying gas from oil, and photovoltaic solar energy, which only operates during daylight hours.
As the sun sets, the system is solely supported by thermoelectric plants and Energas machines, whose capacity falls short of meeting national demand.
External Supply Challenges
The outlook for external fuel supply is dire: so far in 2026, Cuba has only secured one fuel import, a donation from the Russian government that arrived on March 31st at the Matanzas supertanker base.
"The country is now in its tenth month of the year, during which only one fuel import has been completed—Russia's donation that arrived on March 31st at the Matanzas supertanker base. Ten months without fuel imports for electricity generation and basic economic programs," Guerra Hernández emphasized.
The situation in September underscores the magnitude of the collapse: 23 out of 28 days in the month exceeded 2,000 MW of maximum impact, with an approximate average of 2,093 MW, based on SEN reports.
Understanding Cuba's Current Electricity Crisis
What is causing the power outages in Cuba?
The power outages are primarily due to a structural deficit in the National Electric System, which has significantly less available capacity compared to the demand, compounded by a lack of imported fuel to activate idle plants.
How is Cuba attempting to address the power shortages?
Cuba is trying to address the shortages by reintegrating previously offline generating units and relying on domestically produced crude oil and gas, though these measures are insufficient without additional imported fuel.
What has been the recent trend in power outages in Cuba?
The trend has been concerning, with frequent outages exceeding 2,000 MW of impact on most days, highlighting a critical energy crisis exacerbated by limited fuel imports.