The tropical storm known as Isaías is experiencing a rapid intensification in the Gulf of Mexico, potentially reaching hurricane status within hours, according to the latest update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in the United States.
In its fifth Public Advisory, issued at 4:00 p.m. CDT, the NHC reported that Isaías now boasts maximum sustained winds of 65 mph (100 km/h) and a minimum central pressure of 994 millibars.
This update highlights a remarkable strengthening over just three hours, as earlier at 1:00 p.m. CDT, Isaías had winds of only 50 mph and a pressure of 997 millibars.
Currently, Isaías is merely nine miles per hour shy of the 74 mph threshold that marks hurricane status on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
Isaías Expected to Reach Hurricane Status by Thursday Morning
The NHC characterizes Isaías as a rapidly intensifying system, predicting that it may transform into a hurricane by Thursday morning, with further strengthening anticipated through Friday morning.
As of 4:00 p.m., the storm's center was located near 22.7 degrees north latitude and 92.9 degrees west longitude, approximately 365 kilometers west-northwest of Progreso, Mexico, and about 805 kilometers south-southwest of the Mississippi River's mouth.
Isaías is moving east-northeast at approximately 8 mph (13 km/h). Forecasts suggest a turn toward the northeast and eventually north during Thursday and Friday.
If Isaías maintains its current trajectory, it is expected to pass north of the Yucatán Peninsula on Thursday and make landfall on the northern U.S. Gulf Coast between late Friday and early Saturday.
Existing Watches Remain Unchanged, but Expansions Possible
The latest bulletin does not modify the existing coastal watches in place.
A hurricane watch remains from Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, to Indian Pass, Florida, along with a storm surge watch from the Mississippi River's mouth to Yankeetown, Florida.
Additionally, a tropical storm watch continues from the line between Jefferson and Plaquemines Parishes to the west of Bay St. Louis, and from the east of Indian Pass to the Aucilla River in Florida.
The NHC cautions, however, that additional watches or warnings might be required overnight for other areas along the northern Gulf Coast.
Earlier today, CiberCuba reported the activation of initial hurricane and storm surge watches related to Isaías.
Storm Surge Threat and Heavy Rainfall
The NHC warns of a potentially dangerous storm surge ranging from five to seven feet, or approximately 1.5 to 2.1 meters, from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to Indian Pass, Florida, including Mobile Bay.
Between Indian Pass and the Steinhatchee River in Florida, the forecast has been adjusted to a surge of four to six feet, while between Steinhatchee and Yankeetown, surges of two to four feet are expected.
Additionally, the NHC has slightly increased its precipitation forecast for the central Gulf Coast: between three and seven inches of rain may accumulate from Friday through the weekend, with localized amounts up to 10 inches.
These rainfall totals could lead to flash flooding, urban flooding, and isolated river rises from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.
Heightened Tornado Risk
Moreover, the latest bulletin includes a clearer warning about the threat of tornadoes.
The NHC anticipates an increased potential for tornadoes Friday afternoon and evening as Isaías’ rainbands reach the northeastern Gulf Coast.
This risk may extend inland on Saturday as Isaías continues its northward movement.
Florida is already under a state of emergency across 25 counties after Governor Ron DeSantis ordered resource mobilization in preparation for Isaías’ potential impacts.
If Isaías strengthens into a hurricane within the next few hours, it would become the first hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic season, following an unusually late start to reach this category.
The NHC's next intermediate advisory is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. CDT, with the next full bulletin expected at 10:00 p.m. CDT.
Key Questions About Isaías and Its Impact
What is the current status of Tropical Storm Isaías?
As of the latest update, Isaías is a rapidly intensifying tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph, nearing hurricane strength.
When is Isaías expected to become a hurricane?
The NHC predicts that Isaías could reach hurricane status by Thursday morning, with further strengthening expected through Friday.
What areas are currently under watch or warning?
Hurricane watches are in effect from Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, to Indian Pass, Florida. Storm surge and tropical storm watches cover additional areas along the Gulf Coast.