Cuban author and entrepreneur Álvaro Ferro-Lugones, who resides in Miami, has responded to recent statements made by Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz. Marrero Cruz recently announced that the results of the government's economic reforms won't be noticeable until 2027.
On Facebook, Ferro-Lugones shared his thoughts, encapsulating the frustration of a populace that has been hearing the same promise with a different date for decades.
"There's a phrase that Cubans have heard so many times it seems like part of the national calendar: 'next year, we'll start seeing results,'" he remarked.
Ferro-Lugones, also a lecturer, argues that the issue isn't about asking for time to fix an economy, as any serious transformation requires it. The problem arises when time replaces results, and each failure comes with a new explanation, a new program, and another distant date.
"One generation waited. Then the next did the same. Meanwhile, power outages, shortages, deteriorating services, insufficient wages, and emigration splitting countless families ensued," he elaborated.
"It's always a little more time, another year, another effort, another sacrifice," he questioned.
Ferro-Lugones believes it's time for the government to be accountable rather than continue making renewed promises.
"If after decades, prosperity remains just around the corner, perhaps the issue isn't how much longer it will take to see results. Maybe the real question is: How many 'next years' does a government need before it starts answering for the years that have already passed?" he stated.
He concluded his reflection with a stern warning: "A country cannot live perpetually waiting for tomorrow while today slips away through the airport's door."
The Reality Behind Promises
The Cuban regime has once again deferred its expectations for improvement, stating that the outcomes of its current economic and social measures won't be visible until 2027.
In the official podcast "Desde la Presidencia," Marrero Cruz assured that the government is "convinced" there will be results next year, despite previous official forecasts on economic growth, power outages, and recovery not materializing.
"We already have the path open to move forward; and indeed, progress is being made and results can already be seen, although they are not yet reflected in an improved quality of life for the population," he said.
This announcement has sparked a new wave of skepticism among the public.
A History of Unfulfilled Promises
In August 2024, Marrero himself had suggested that in "five years," the situation would improve, pushing recovery approximately to 2029.
That same year, the regime promised that power outages wouldn't exceed four hours daily during the summer of 2025; however, blackouts reached 12 hours in many areas and up to 19 hours in Santiago de Cuba. They also projected a 1% GDP growth for 2025, but the economy shrank by about 5%.
Now, the promise is pushed to 2027, while CEPAL forecasts a Cuban GDP decline of 10.3% in 2026—the worst in Latin America—and an additional contraction of 5.1%, precisely in the year aimed at by official optimism.
The actual figures starkly contrast that enthusiasm. The informal dollar exchange rate surged past 700 pesos in September, reaching approximately 738 pesos per dollar, an all-time high. Year-over-year inflation hit 25.19% in August, with food prices soaring by 36.01%. The minimum wage is equivalent to less than five dollars at the informal exchange rate.
Cuba has experienced at least eight nationwide blackouts so far in 2026, with generation deficits surpassing 2,000 MW on multiple occasions.
Economist Elías Amor was blunt in his assessment of the package of 176 economic and social transformations approved in June, which the government touts as the largest structural reform since the Special Period: "A total scam," he said, pointing out that between January and May 2026, net sales in the state sector fell by 29.2%, and companies with losses increased from 252 to 363.
This bleak economic picture is compounded by an unprecedented exodus: over 245,000 Cubans officially emigrated in 2025, and the island's population dropped to 9.4 million inhabitants, with deaths doubling births.
Understanding Cuba's Economic Challenges
Why are Cubans skeptical about government promises?
Cubans are skeptical because they have heard similar promises for decades without seeing tangible improvements. Each failed promise is often replaced by a new one with a future date.
What are the economic predictions for Cuba in the coming years?
The CEPAL predicts a significant economic downturn for Cuba, with a 10.3% decline in GDP in 2026, followed by a further 5.1% contraction, contrasting with the government's optimistic outlook.
How has the economic situation affected the Cuban population?
The economic situation has led to severe power outages, high inflation rates, insufficient wages, and a significant emigration wave, causing a drop in the island's population.