A recent electoral survey in Florida reveals a significant shift from previous weeks: Republican Byron Donalds has overtaken Democrat David Jolly by seven points in the gubernatorial race, while also regaining support among Hispanic voters.
The NBC6/Telemundo Station Group poll conducted by Mason-Dixon places Donalds at 48% and Jolly at 41% in voter intentions.
Additionally, 10% of those surveyed remain undecided, and roughly 1% support another candidate.
The election, scheduled for November 3rd, will determine who succeeds Ron DeSantis after his two consecutive terms as governor of Florida.
Hispanic Voter Preferences Shift
Among Hispanic voters polled by Mason-Dixon, Donalds now leads with 48% compared to Jolly’s 43%.
This result is particularly noteworthy given that an earlier poll depicted a completely different scenario.
In mid-September, a St. Pete Polls survey showed the two candidates nearly tied statewide: Donalds at 43.5% and Jolly at 43.4%.
In that poll, however, Jolly led among Hispanics with 48% to Donalds' 39%.
At the time, CiberCuba reported on Donalds' campaign efforts to recapture the Hispanic vote, including a significant investment of at least one million dollars in Spanish-language advertising.
It's important to note that these polls are not directly comparable as they were conducted by different organizations using varied samples, dates, and methodologies. Results concerning Hispanics involve smaller subgroups, leading to a higher margin of error.
Who Are Byron Donalds and David Jolly?
Byron Donalds is a Republican congressman representing southwest Florida in the U.S. House of Representatives. He is closely aligned with President Donald Trump within the Republican Party.
Before joining Congress in 2021, he served in the Florida House of Representatives and worked in banking, finance, and insurance sectors.
Donalds selected state senator Bryan Ávila, a Hialeah native and son of Cuban exiles, as his running mate for lieutenant governor.
Ávila has played a prominent role in reaching out to Hispanic voters, emphasizing living costs, security, and opposition to socialism in Spanish-language ads.
David Jolly, meanwhile, is a former Congressman who began as a Republican, later became an independent, and is now running as a Democrat.
His campaign focuses on issues like housing insurance costs, healthcare, public education, and regulating certain tech projects and data centers.
Senate Race Also Leans Republican
The same poll examined the other major state race in November: the federal Senate election.
Republican Ashley Moody leads with 50% over Democrat Angie Nixon at 40%.
Non-affiliated candidate Neil Gillespie garners 2%, while 8% of voters remain undecided.
Moody currently holds the Senate seat vacated by Marco Rubio, who became Secretary of State. She previously served as Florida’s Attorney General and was a federal judge and prosecutor.
Angie Nixon is a state representative from Jacksonville, a union organizer, and part of her party's progressive wing.
Among Hispanic voters, Moody secures 47% compared to Nixon's 40% in the new poll.
Socialism as a Voting Factor
The poll also explored how a candidate's identification as a "democratic socialist" might influence voters.
Statewide, 52% said this label would make them less likely to support the candidate, compared to only 8% who said it would increase their likelihood.
Among Hispanics, 57% indicated they would be less inclined to support a candidate with this descriptor.
The question did not mention Nixon or any specific candidate, so these results alone do not explain Moody's advantage.
Nixon has been linked to the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), a left-wing organization advocating democratic socialism.
For many Latino voters in Florida, especially those with Cuban or Venezuelan ties to socialist or communist regimes, this discussion carries particular political sensitivity, despite the diverse and non-monolithic nature of the Hispanic community in the state.
Economic Concerns Dominate
The economy emerges as the key issue shaping voter decisions.
When Mason-Dixon asked about the most influential factor in voting for 2026, 30% cited inflation and the cost of living.
This was followed by the state or country's direction at 17% and immigration law enforcement at 16%.
Additionally, 26% mentioned food prices as the main barrier to meeting daily expenses. Another 17% said their incomes are not keeping pace with rising prices, while 15% highlighted gas costs.
Housing, insurance, and property taxes have also become central topics in the gubernatorial campaign.
Trump's Polarizing Effect
The poll also inquired about President Donald Trump's performance.
The results were evenly split: 48% approve and 48% disapprove of his leadership, with another 4% undecided.
Among Hispanics, 45% approve of Trump while 49% disapprove.
This is intriguing because Donalds, politically aligned with Trump, simultaneously leads Jolly among these same Hispanic voters.
However, a single survey cannot pinpoint the exact reasons why voters support a state candidate while holding a different view of the president.
Independents Offer a Different Perspective
Donalds maintains strong support from Republicans, and Jolly from Democrats, but unaffiliated voters show a different pattern.
Among independents surveyed, Jolly leads Donalds, although a significant number remain undecided.
This explains why, despite Donalds’ lead in this poll, there is still a sufficient proportion of undecided voters to keep the campaign competitive in the weeks ahead.
Methodology of the Poll
Mason-Dixon conducted the poll between September 28 and October 1.
The survey included 625 randomly selected registered Florida voters interviewed live by phone, all of whom said they were likely to vote in the November 3 general election.
The sample consisted of 277 Republicans, 214 Democrats, and 134 independent voters.
The overall margin of error for the poll is approximately ±4 percentage points with a 95% confidence level.
The margin of error is higher when analyzing smaller groups, such as Hispanic voters, young people, or independents, necessitating careful interpretation of these figures.
A Crucial Month for Florida and Cuban Voters
The November 3 election will not only decide who governs Florida for the next four years but also who will fill one of the state's two U.S. Senate seats.
For the Cuban community in South Florida, both contests are particularly significant.
The Republican gubernatorial ticket features a Cuban-American, Bryan Ávila, while issues like immigration, living costs, property taxes, insurance, and political relations with Cuba are part of the electoral debate.
The new poll suggests Donalds and Moody enter this stage of the campaign with a stronger position among Hispanics than some previous surveys indicated.
However, with nearly a month remaining, a significant portion of voters is still undecided, and methodological differences between polls suggest caution in interpreting a single survey as a predictor of the November 3 outcome.
Understanding Florida's Political Landscape
What is the significance of the recent poll in Florida?
The recent poll indicates a lead for Byron Donalds over David Jolly, showing a shift in Hispanic voter support, which could impact the gubernatorial race.
How does the Hispanic vote influence Florida elections?
The Hispanic vote is crucial in Florida due to the state's large and diverse Hispanic population, which can sway election outcomes significantly.
What challenges do both candidates face in the upcoming election?
Both candidates face the challenge of appealing to undecided voters and navigating key issues such as the economy, healthcare, and immigration.