A retired U.S. Army officer with extensive experience in military intelligence has provided a detailed account of how Washington could swiftly dismantle Cuba's air defenses, paving the way for the regime's downfall without ever setting foot in Havana.
The insights of Lieutenant Colonel Octavio Pérez were featured in the tenth episode of the investigative podcast The Havana Files, which was released on Thursday, October 2nd. The show is hosted by Cuban journalist Gelet Martínez Fragela, the founder and editor-in-chief of the independent media outlet ADN Cuba.
Pérez, a Cuban-American military analyst who has served with the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM), and the School of the Americas—where he trained officers from 17 Latin American countries—was unequivocal about the regime's military vulnerabilities.
The Obsolescence of Cuba's Military Technology
"Cuba's radar systems are relics from the Soviet era, predating 1999. Their air defense systems are also extremely outdated. With our stealth technology in the F-22, F-35, and many of our bombers, they wouldn't even detect them," explained Pérez.
According to the expert, Cuba's air force consists of fewer than 12 operational aircraft, rendering it virtually defenseless. "You could obliterate their air force in minutes. Their air defense radars would be gone in minutes. That would be the initial message," he stated.
The Strategy Beyond Havana
Pérez's scenario doesn't involve a traditional invasion or urban combat in the capital. "Entering Havana isn't necessary. Military forces generally avoid fighting in large urban areas; it's a death trap," he noted.
Instead, he suggests establishing civic-military zones—G5 operations—in strategic locations such as the Isle of Youth, Eastern Cuba near Guantánamo, Nuevitas in Camagüey, and Pinar del Río.
Faced with such a deployment, the regime's response capabilities would be severely compromised. "The government would either flee or be incapacitated, as they lack the means to counter something of this magnitude," Pérez asserted.
Potential Military Movements
The 101st Airborne Division, equipped with Apache helicopters and infantry brigades, has been identified as the preferred force for any potential operation.
Pérez offered a tangible indicator of impending action: "If you notice those helicopters relocating to specific airfields in Florida, something significant is about to happen."
Heightened Pressure on the Cuban Regime
This analysis comes amid escalating U.S. pressure on Cuba. On September 22, President Trump declared at the UN General Assembly that Cuba is a "completely failed state" destined to "collapse," prompting the Cuban delegation to exit the room.
CBS News reported in July that Pentagon planners had explored intervention scenarios involving the 101st Division, and in September, it was revealed that the Army Reserve was assessing its ability to provide units to SOUTHCOM within 90 to 120 days.
Pérez also highlighted an increase in surveillance flights over Cuba since August 2025, initially to support the operation that captured Nicolás Maduro and then to map the island's defenses. "They're really in the dark, just like Maduro was on January 3rd this year," he compared.
Beyond military options, the analyst mentioned other yet-unused levers of pressure: seizing the regime's offshore bank accounts and halting the supply of liquefied petroleum gas crucial for electricity generation. Such actions would leave the country without potable water or the ability to respond. "People often overlook the myriad functions of electricity," he warned.
Martínez Fragela summed up the depth of the analysis at the program's conclusion: "A strike is not a movie. Low-intensity warfare isn't just a slogan. It's doctrine, geography, alliances, and the patient work of a regime that never mistook theater for strategy."
Understanding the Potential U.S. Military Actions Against Cuba
What is the current state of Cuba's air defense systems?
Cuba's air defense systems are outdated, primarily consisting of Soviet-era technology from before 1999, making them vulnerable to modern stealth technology.
How could the U.S. dismantle Cuba's military defenses?
The U.S. could use its advanced stealth aircraft to destroy Cuba's air force and air defense radars within minutes, effectively neutralizing their military defenses.
What are the strategic locations for potential U.S. operations in Cuba?
Strategic locations mentioned include the Isle of Youth, Eastern Cuba near Guantánamo, Nuevitas in Camagüey, and Pinar del Río.
What other non-military pressures could the U.S. apply to Cuba?
The U.S. could seize the regime's offshore bank accounts and cut off the supply of liquefied petroleum gas, crucial for electricity generation, to further weaken the regime.