Flávio Bolsonaro Beats Lula in First Round; Runoff Set for October 25

In a surprising turn of events, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro emerged victorious over President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the initial round of Brazil's presidential elections. According to the official results from the Superior Electoral Court, Bolsonaro secured 47.06% of the valid votes, while Lula garnered 45.13%, with 99.88% of the votes counted.

The margin between the two candidates was approximately 2.3 million votes — 56,075,582 for Bolsonaro compared to 53,778,788 for Lula — falling short of the 50% threshold required for an outright win. Consequently, both candidates will face off in a runoff election on October 25.

A Resilient Comeback for Flávio Bolsonaro

This outcome marks a significant achievement for the 45-year-old Flávio Bolsonaro, who initially was perceived as a weak contender and is currently under investigation for corruption. As the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro—who is serving house arrest after being sentenced to 27 years for leading a coup plot—Flávio was appointed as the Liberal Party's (PL) candidate by his father from prison in December 2025.

Meanwhile, the 80-year-old Lula is aiming for an unprecedented fourth term. However, the outlook for the runoff appears grim for him, as he ran as the sole candidate from the progressive side, which limits his ability to rally additional support. In contrast, Bolsonaro is expected to secure the backing of eliminated right-wing candidates, who collectively hold around 7% of the vote.

Political Shifts and Implications

Political analyst Creomar de Souza expressed skepticism about Lula's chances in the second round, highlighting the historical difficulty of overcoming a deficit in a Brazilian runoff. "Historically, a comeback in a second-round election has never happened in Brazil. It's a very challenging scenario for Lula," he told the BBC. De Souza also noted the effectiveness of Flávio's campaign, particularly in the last week, in framing the election as an effort to unseat Lula rather than focusing on Flávio himself.

The day was also favorable for the bolsonarismo movement in other areas. Tarcísio de Freitas, the governor of São Paulo, won re-election with a 26-point lead over his opponent Fernando Haddad. The PL strengthened its position in Congress, paving the way for the potential amnesty of those convicted for the January 8, 2023 coup attempt. Additionally, Jair Bolsonaro's wife, Michelle Bolsonaro, along with two of his sons, Carlos and Jair Renan, were elected to parliamentary positions. Flávio has vowed to pardon his father if he ascends to the presidency.

Regional and International Impact

Bolsonaro's partial victory aligns with a broader right-wing wave sweeping Latin America, with recent victories by Abelardo de la Espriella in Colombia and Keiko Fujimori in Peru, as well as prior shifts in Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Ecuador, and Honduras, as reported by El País. Among the first to congratulate Bolsonaro was Colombian President De la Espriella, who declared, "The true change is defeating the left."

This election result bears direct implications for Cuba. Under Lula, a longtime ally of Havana, Brazil maintained a policy of cooperation, providing thousands of tons of food and donating medicines to treat hundreds of patients. Between January and April of this year alone, over 13,000 Cubans sought refuge in Brazil, accounting for 58% of the total requests during that period. A potential Flávio Bolsonaro administration could signify a return to his father's policies, which, during his tenure from 2019 to 2022, criticized the Mais Médicos program, labeled Díaz-Canel a "dictator," and adopted a hostile stance toward Havana.

The upcoming runoff on October 25 will determine whether Brazil decisively joins the regional ultraconservative trend or if Lula can achieve a historic comeback that analysts deem unprecedented in the country's electoral history.