In Cuba, extreme power outages have shifted from being an occasional disturbance to a regular feature of the country's National Electric System (SEN). According to recent statistics, more than 23 days last month witnessed power disruptions exceeding 2,000 megawatts (MW).
A detailed analysis by CiberCuba, which reviewed daily reports on the electric system from September 3 to October 2, found that 28 out of 30 days had comparable data. Remarkably, 23 of those days surpassed the 2,000 MW threshold.
This indicates that 82.1% of the days with comparable data ended with outages beyond that level, a scenario that would have been deemed extraordinary just a few years back. The average maximum disruption among these days was about 2,093 MW.
CiberCuba based its calculations solely on the actual maximum disruption figures reported at the end of each day, excluding peak hour forecasts. These figures are available in the SEN outage reports archive created by CiberCuba, derived from the Union Electrica, Ministry of Energy and Mines, and provincial electric companies.
The primary institutional reference continues to be the daily notes on the state of the SEN published by the Union Electrica.
Persistent High Outages: A New Normal
The most striking revelation is not an isolated record but the continuity of the situation. From September 3 to 12, Cuba endured ten consecutive days with maximum power disruptions exceeding 2,000 MW. The highest disruption during this period occurred on September 5, reaching 2,396 MW.
Even after a slight decrease on September 13 to 1,987 MW and 1,884 MW on the 14th, the system quickly escalated back to extreme levels, recording 2,168 MW on the 15th, 2,166 MW on the 16th, and 2,051 MW on the 17th.
Unrecorded Days and System Collapse
September 18 and 19 were excluded from percentage calculations due to incomparable maximum disruption figures. On September 18, the SEN experienced a complete disconnection at 1:57 PM, initiating a complex recovery process that continued into the next day.
Counting these as days with less than 2,000 MW would distort the statistics since the issue wasn't merely about the deficit but the national grid losing interconnection.
Return to Extreme Levels Post-Recovery
Once the system was back online, sustained recovery remained elusive. Disruptions returned to 2,037 MW on September 20, 2,025 MW on the 21st, climbing to 2,170 MW on the 23rd, and 2,155 MW on the 24th. The 25th saw a brief dip to 1,968 MW.
However, the drop was short-lived as disruptions rose again to 2,044 MW on the 26th and 2,037 MW on the 27th. The period's lowest disruption was recorded on September 28 at 1,858 MW, but by the 29th, it was back to 2,067 MW.
By the end of September, outages averaged around 1,940 MW, and October started with levels above 2,000 MW, recording 2,059 MW on October 1 and 2,130 MW on October 2.
Understanding the Implications of 2,000 MW Disruptions
When we talk about a 2,000 MW disruption, it signifies more than just an abstract deficit. It represents the power that the system fails to deliver due to insufficient capacity, resulting in mandatory blackouts.
Official reports consistently highlight a mix of failures in thermoelectric plants, units under maintenance, thermal generation limitations, and distributed generation plants halted by fuel shortages. For instance, on September 18, the Union Electrica reported 114 distributed generation plants offline due to fuel scarcity, accounting for 926 MW. When combined with other unavailable fuel plants, the total reached 1,242 MW, alongside thermal limitations adding another 455 MW.
Although new solar parks have increased output during daylight, they cannot rectify the structural deficit evident when photovoltaic production declines and nighttime demand rises.
Extreme Disruptions Turn Routine
Describing the "normalization" of extreme outages does not imply that Cuba's electric system is stabilizing. It suggests the opposite: levels of impact that should be extraordinary have become statistically common.
Throughout the analyzed period, the average maximum disruption exceeded 2,000 MW, with ten consecutive days breaching this mark. Amidst this sequence, Cuba endured a total SEN disconnection.
As October begins, there's no indication of a trend reversal. Following 2,130 MW on October 2, the forecast for October 3 once again anticipates over 2,000 MW during peak demand hours.
In Cuba, the issue is no longer just about the occurrence of power outages. The scale of these interruptions reveals a deeper deterioration: the system has made disruptions over 2,000 MW a regular part of its daily operations.
Understanding Cuba's Power Crisis
What is causing the frequent power outages in Cuba?
The outages are primarily due to a mix of failures in thermoelectric plants, maintenance issues, limitations in thermal generation, and distributed generation plants being offline due to fuel shortages.
How does the 2,000 MW disruption affect Cuban consumers?
A disruption of 2,000 MW indicates that the system cannot supply enough power to meet consumer demand, resulting in enforced blackouts to manage the deficit.
Are there any improvements expected in Cuba's electrical system?
Currently, there are no signs of significant improvements. The system struggles with recurring extreme disruptions, and solar power, while helpful, cannot entirely offset the structural deficits.