In a thought-provoking discussion on CiberCuba, writer and analyst Camilo Venegas proposed a scenario that many observers find increasingly likely: Miguel Díaz-Canel could be politically sacrificed following Raúl Castro's death, becoming the fall guy for the long list of failures attributed to the Cuban regime.
"One possibility, something that could very well happen, is that Díaz-Canel is ousted after Raúl's death, blamed for everything that's gone wrong. As a fool, he could be held accountable for all the regime's missteps. He becomes the scapegoat for this latest disaster of the revolution, which is the greatest disaster of all, while they install another puppet to communicate things differently," Venegas suggested.
The Unchanging Power Structure
Venegas argues that such a maneuver wouldn't signify any real shift in the power structure, but merely a change in appearance. According to his analysis, the true power holders are the military, whose primary concern is maintaining their lucrative enterprise, GAESA, intact.
"As long as the business is thriving, there won't be any leadership changes because the generals know their operations could end with the slightest alteration. Their sole concern is keeping the status quo intact, with a Díaz-Canel today who could easily be replaced tomorrow," he explained.
No Internal Power Struggle Expected
This reasoning also explains why Frank Rodríguez, another panel participant, dismisses the notion that Raúl's death would trigger an internal power struggle. "I don't believe it. I just don't," he reiterated, arguing that as long as the businesses continue to prosper, the generals have no reason to turn against each other.
Venegas portrayed the military as "Cuba's current entrepreneurs," but with a significant deviation from typical businesspeople: "They don't create the businesses they control, nor do they foster a welfare state. Instead, it's an exploitative system at its most savage. And none of this benefits the population." This dynamic, he added, is why "the country is at a standstill, with only these small fiefdoms where they expropriate the nation's resources."
Raúl Castro's Enduring Influence
GAESA, the military's business conglomerate, commands between 40% and 70% of Cuba's formal economy, dominating critical sectors like tourism, telecommunications, banking, and foreign trade.
Regarding Raúl Castro, Venegas describes him as the silent architect of this structure. "Raúl has demonstrated in life his ability to step back from power and orchestrate events, ensuring others carry out the functions. He has been the guarantor of this sultanate's continuity in recent years," he stated, quoting Jorge de Armas. As an example of his influence, he pointed out that Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz is entirely Raúl's creation. "He was López Calleja's second-in-command and was appointed to every significant position Cuba held."
At 95, Raúl Castro made a public appearance alongside Díaz-Canel on September 6, after months of speculation about his health. Díaz-Canel himself admitted in April that the former leader is "alive but retired for health reasons" and "frail due to his advanced age."
Analyst Jorge de Armas was even more blunt about the impact of Raúl's potential passing. "The death of Raúl Castro... the specific weight of that death, what could it mean for Cuba's future? Nothing. Absolutely nothing." For De Armas, Raúl is primarily "a symbol of repression in Cuba, a symbol of absolute power, and the greatest representation of the yoke burdening the Cuban people." His disappearance wouldn't change the lives of those who have endured this system for decades.
Exploring the Future of Cuban Leadership
What role does GAESA play in Cuba's economy?
GAESA, the business conglomerate of the Cuban military, controls 40% to 70% of the island's formal economy, overseeing vital sectors such as tourism, telecommunications, banking, and foreign trade.
Why might Díaz-Canel be used as a scapegoat after Raúl Castro's death?
Díaz-Canel could be used as a scapegoat to absorb the blame for the Cuban regime's failures, allowing the military to maintain control while presenting a facade of change.
Will Raúl Castro's death lead to a power struggle in Cuba?
Analysts like Frank Rodríguez believe that Raúl Castro's death will not trigger a power struggle, as long as the military's business ventures continue to thrive, leaving no incentive for internal conflict.