In yet another delay of promised improvements, the Cuban government has announced that the outcomes of its current economic and social policies will not be evident until 2027.
Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz expressed confidence that next year will bring results. This comes despite previous official forecasts regarding economic growth, power outages, and recovery not materializing as predicted.
During the latest episode of the official podcast "From the Presidency," held on Friday, both Marrero and President Miguel Díaz-Canel discussed the status of the 176 economic and social transformations. The frequently asked question in Cuba about when these changes will take effect was met with a now-familiar assurance: results are expected next year.
The government had previously pledged that power outages would not exceed four hours daily by the summer of 2025, a target that was not met. In December of that same year, a 1% GDP growth was projected for 2025, yet the economy instead saw a 5% decline. In August 2024, Marrero optimistically claimed the situation would improve in "five years."
This time, Marrero addressed the core contradiction by stating, "We have already paved the way to move forward; progress is being made and results are visible, although the improvement in the quality of life is not yet felt by the population."
To explain the lack of tangible results, Marrero noted that the last three months were focused on planning the "how" of reforms rather than their execution. During this period, 160 implementation proposals were created, and 197 supportive legal norms were approved, including four laws, 29 decree-laws, and 26 decrees from the Council of Ministers.
He also announced the approval of over 3,600 new micro-enterprises during this time, bringing the total to 16,100 in the country, along with 448 non-state cooperatives and more than 385,000 self-employed workers.
In terms of energy, the regime reported 1,418 megawatts installed across 144 photovoltaic parks—accounting for 21.4% of total generation—plus an additional 566 megawatts installed by families and economic actors through private solar systems. The introduction of 22,000 electric vehicles was also noted.
However, these optimistic figures stand in stark contrast to the reality faced by Cubans. The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (CEPAL) forecasts a 10.3% drop in Cuba's GDP in 2026, the steepest in Latin America, while annual inflation in August reached 25.19%, with food prices surging 36.01%.
The minimum wage is equivalent to less than five dollars at the informal exchange rate, and the informal dollar surpassed 700 pesos in September, marking a new historic high.
Economist Elías Amor criticized the reform package as "a complete deception" just a day before the podcast was released, highlighting that between January and May 2026, net sales in the state sector fell by 29.2%, and companies with losses increased from 252 to 363.
The regime's own internal opinion studies acknowledged that part of the population perceives that the benefits of the transformations only reach those with money, and that growing inequalities are causing discontent.
Marrero attempted to address skeptics with another promise: "We will give our all to turn words into action."
The 176 transformations approved in June include greater autonomy for state enterprises, the introduction of private banking, municipal decentralization, and incentives for renewable energies, described by the regime as the most significant structural reform since the Special Period.
Since 2020, Cuba has experienced an approximate 26% economic decline, with three consecutive years of contraction and eight nationwide blackouts throughout 2026.
Key Questions on Cuba's Economic Challenges
What are the main reasons for Cuba's economic decline?
Cuba's economic decline is attributed to a combination of the communist regime's policies, lack of external investment, and a global downturn. Additionally, the ongoing U.S. embargo and pandemic-related tourism declines have exacerbated the situation.
How has inflation affected the Cuban population?
Inflation has severely impacted the purchasing power of Cubans, leading to increased food prices and making basic necessities unaffordable for many. The minimum wage remains low, further straining household budgets.
What measures are being proposed to improve the situation in Cuba?
The government has proposed several reforms, including increased autonomy for state enterprises, the introduction of private banking, municipal decentralization, and promotion of renewable energy sources. However, skepticism remains about their effectiveness.