Biden-Era Migration Surge Boosts U.S. Economy, Study Finds

A significant rise in immigration in the United States from 2021 to 2024 has been linked to economic growth, an increase in the gross domestic product (GDP) of major metropolitan areas, and minimal negative impact on native-born workers, according to a recent study by Brookings Papers on Economic Activity.

The research, conducted by Jennifer Hunt of Rutgers University; Pia Orrenius from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; and Madeline Zavodny of the University of North Florida, examined the economic effects of approximately 6.5 million immigrants who arrived in the U.S. through unconventional channels between 2021 and 2024.

Results were disseminated by the Brookings Institution on September 23 and presented the following day at the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity fall conference, a publication focused on macroeconomics and economic policy.

"A key takeaway from our findings is that the U.S. economy has largely integrated an unprecedented influx of migrants with few adverse economic effects," the authors noted.

The post-pandemic surge in migration added roughly 2% to the U.S. population of 2021 and raised the proportion of foreign-born residents to its highest level in over a century. New York emerged as the top metropolitan destination, followed by Miami, Los Angeles, Dallas-Fort Worth, Chicago, and Houston.

According to the study, the influx of immigrants boosted the average GDP of the metropolitan areas analyzed by about 1.5%.

Researchers attributed this to increased consumption from the new population and suggested that the roles filled by newcomers complemented rather than displaced those of native-born workers.

News Telemundo highlighted on Tuesday that the surge in migration was also linked to the creation of 1.6 million jobs in major metropolitan areas, accounting for 18% of positions generated between 2021 and 2024.

However, not all indicators were positive. The study estimates that the arrival of immigrants might have reduced the average wage of the workforce by up to 1.5%, partly because many newcomers took up lower-paying jobs.

Nonetheless, wages for native-born workers rose by about 0.9%, and employment levels remained mostly stable, according to the authors.

The study also identified effects in the housing market. Increased demand from the new population likely drove rents up by 1.4% to 1.6%.

Even so, the researchers calculated that wages for native-born tenants grew by a higher proportion, increasing by at least 1.6% after accounting for rent hikes.

The authors caution that some of these effects coincided with an exceptional period in the U.S. economy: the early post-pandemic years were marked by rapid recovery, government incentives, and low interest rates, factors that also affected employment, wages, and housing.

Another observed element was a shift in internal population movements. As immigrant arrivals increased in certain cities, migration to those areas by existing U.S. residents decreased, which, according to the researchers, helped distribute the economic effects across different metropolitan zones.

The study also examined the bus program initiated by Texas and Arizona from April 2022 to June 2024.

Approximately 125,000 immigrants accepted free transfers to Chicago, Denver, Los Angeles, New York, Philadelphia, and Washington, D.C.

Venezuelans and Colombians most frequently utilized these transfers, while other nationalities tended to move to cities with existing communities from their home countries. Cubans and Haitians particularly concentrated in the Miami area, according to the research.

In Denver, which proportionally received more bus-transported migrants, the study found a short-term drop in wages for native-born workers, illustrating that the effects were not uniform across cities or labor groups.

The authors emphasize that their results describe an aggregate effect and do not imply that all cities, sectors, or workers experienced the same outcomes.

Their central conclusion is that, overall, the U.S. economy absorbed the 2021-2024 migration surge with economic growth and without a notable decrease in employment among native-born workers.

These findings are particularly relevant amid the Trump administration's tightening of immigration policies and ongoing debates about the role of immigrant labor in the U.S. economy.

In August, a report on the economic effects of deportations and ICE operations warned that the reduction of the immigrant workforce was impacting sectors such as construction, agriculture, hospitality, and services.

This analysis cited estimates suggesting that immigration policies implemented during 2025 could be linked to the loss of around 668,000 jobs, including between 51,000 and 297,000 roles occupied by native-born workers.

It also referenced a Brookings study on 86 metropolitan areas that calculated employment was, on average, 0.73% below expected levels following waves of ICE arrests.

Another academic study previously cited found that immigration operations were associated with consumption losses between $3.1 billion and $14 billion, mainly due to reduced shopping visits by immigrant communities fearful of detention.

Florida is among the states particularly exposed to these effects due to the importance of immigrant workers in sectors like construction, hospitality, landscaping, and agriculture.

In the southern part of the state, raids have also decreased foot traffic to stores in areas with a strong foreign population presence, according to the cited studies.