Marco Rubio Asserts: Cuba Has Already Fallen, Transition to Democracy is the Only Path Forward

Senator Marco Rubio declared on Monday that Cuba is not on the brink of collapse, but rather that it has already fallen. He emphasized that the island lacks a functioning economy and the only viable solution is a transition that ensures both political and economic freedoms.

"Cuba is a failed state in every sense of the term," Rubio stated during an interview with Sean Hannity on Fox News. "They might have a government that can imprison and kill, but it is not a functional government nor a functioning country. It simply isn't."

The U.S. diplomat described the Cuban economy as a system designed to enrich a select few: "There is no Cuban economy that benefits the Cuban people. Everything with the potential to generate revenue was controlled by the military and the Communist Party to line the pockets of a few at the expense of the entire nation."

Mass Exodus as Evidence of Collapse

Rubio pointed to the massive exodus as proof of the collapse: "Did you know that since 2021, nearly 20% of Cuba's population has left the country? They've left because it's a total failure, a complete failure."

Official Cuban data confirms a population decrease from 11.18 million at the end of 2021 to 10.05 million by the end of 2023, while independent estimates suggest the total exodus ranges from 1.5 to 1.79 million people between 2021 and 2024.

The Only Way Out: Simultaneous Political and Economic Freedom

Discussing solutions to the crisis, Rubio was clear about the conditions set by Washington: "You can’t have economic freedom in Cuba without first having political freedom. Both must happen simultaneously. That will require a transition period."

The Secretary of State indicated that the Trump administration prefers a diplomatic solution that puts Cuba on an "irreversible path of positive change," but issued a stern warning to those in the regime betting on inaction: "Those chanting revolutionary slogans thinking they can outlast this administration without doing anything or changing will learn the hard way if they don't adjust."

Rubio also drew a red line on security matters: as long as Donald Trump is president, the United States "will never allow Cuba to become a base of operations against U.S. interests or pose a threat to national security."

Increasing Pressure on Havana

The statements from Monday are part of an escalating pressure campaign on Havana throughout 2026. The previous week, Trump had labeled Cuba a "failed state" at the United Nations General Assembly, and Rubio had remarked in New York that the island has a "golden opportunity" to steer towards a better future.

In August, Rubio had cautioned that change in Cuba would not occur overnight. "You can't have something in place for 70 years, deeply rooted, and expect to uproot it overnight and replace it with something new. There is a transition that has to happen and a process to get there," he asserted.

In the same interview, Rubio briefly touched on the situation in Venezuela, where Washington is focused on achieving free and fair elections: "We are working very hard with the 2015 National Assembly to establish the necessary conditions to hold free and fair elections as soon as possible," he said, acknowledging the country has been mired in 25 to 30 years of corruption and mismanagement.

The concept of a democratic transition — simultaneous in political and economic spheres, and irreversible — thus becomes the cornerstone of the Trump administration's policy towards Cuba, with no indication that Washington is willing to relent on this point in exchange for partial gestures from the regime.