Cuban dissident Carolina Barrero has warned that the severe economic, energy, demographic, and institutional crisis gripping Cuba should not be automatically seen as a precursor to political change. According to her, an authoritarian regime can persist even amidst significant national decline.
"Authoritarian regimes can endure for a long time by managing decline, selectively applying repression, and pushing a substantial part of societal pressure out of the country," Barrero stated in a comprehensive interview published Tuesday by the independent magazine El Estornudo.
The Depth of Cuba's Crisis
Recently appointed as an Ambassador for Freedom by Freedom House, Barrero pointed out that Cuba is experiencing a crisis that is "extraordinarily deep," affecting the economy, demographics, energy, institutions, and the legitimacy of the system.
She made a clear distinction between the weakening of the government and the opposition's ability to become a political alternative. "The depth of the regime's crisis doesn't automatically translate into the opposition's capacity to produce a political alternative. These are two distinct variables," she remarked.
Challenges Within the Opposition
Barrero highlighted issues such as the fragmentation within the Cuban opposition, which she believes can be overcome. While there have been numerous initiatives, leaders, and acts of resistance over the decades, she noted a lack of ability to transform this diversity into a coordinated strategy.
She differentiated between unity and coordination, advocating for political plurality. Another shortcoming she identified is the challenge of turning the denunciation of repression into a strategy capable of presenting an organized political alternative in the event of change.
The Role of the Cuban Exile
In this process, Barrero attributed a significant role to the Cuban exile community, though she criticized certain dynamics that, in her view, weaken their political capacity. "Frustration is understandable; when it turns into intolerance, ideological purism, or constant disqualification, it becomes sterile," she asserted.
She emphasized that Cubans inside and outside the island make up "a single Cuban political community scattered across many geographies," despite facing different conditions and responsibilities.
Risks of Sudden State Weakening
Barrero also warned about the risks of a sudden weakening of state structures without a prepared alternative, which could lead to "institutional void, violence, new forms of authoritarianism, or simply the reconstitution of the same power under a different guise."
This month, Barrero was selected as one of the inaugural five members of Freedom House's Ambassadors for Freedom program, alongside human rights advocates from other countries. The organization stated that the ambassadors would work to spotlight threats to freedoms, engage with policymakers, and promote the defense of democracy.
In her interview, Barrero mentioned that one of her priorities in her new role will be to keep the plight of Cuban political prisoners on the international agenda and to increase the number of governments, organizations, and institutions calling for their release.
The leader of Ciudadanía y Libertad also stressed that international pressure can help alter the conditions under which the Cuban government operates, but she dismissed the idea that political transformation on the island could be achieved solely from abroad. "No UN report, parliamentary resolution, diplomatic meeting, or international campaign will alone produce a democratic transition in Cuba," she stated. "The democratization of Cuba will have to be, fundamentally, the work of the Cubans themselves."
Freedom House described Barrero as a Cuban political leader, human rights advocate, and political analyst, noting that her activism led to repeated arbitrary detentions, constant surveillance, house arrest, and ultimately forced exile in February 2022. The United States government publicly condemned her forced exile at the time.
In August of this year, she arrived in Miami to begin a doctoral program in literary studies at the University of Miami.
Understanding Cuba's Political Climate
Why does Carolina Barrero believe that Cuba's crisis doesn't guarantee a political transition?
Barrero argues that authoritarian regimes can endure by managing decline, selectively applying repression, and reducing societal pressure by encouraging emigration, which doesn't necessarily lead to a political transition.
What role does international pressure play in Cuba's political dynamics, according to Barrero?
Barrero believes international pressure can alter the conditions under which the Cuban government operates but insists that change must primarily come from within Cuba itself, as external actions alone won't lead to democratization.
How does Barrero view the Cuban exile community's role?
Barrero sees the Cuban exile community as a crucial part of the broader Cuban political community. However, she cautions that frustration should not turn into intolerance or ideological purism, as these can undermine their political effectiveness.