Western intelligence officials have raised alarms that Vladimir Putin is preparing the groundwork for a "covert mobilization" following the Russian parliamentary elections. This move is likely to coincide with an escalation of attacks on Ukraine and its European allies, as reported by The Telegraph on Friday.
These elections to the State Duma, marking the first since the extensive invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, are scheduled over three days from September 18 to 20. With Putin's party, United Russia, expected to maintain its dominance in the 450-seat chamber, real opposition has been virtually excluded from the process.
The British newspaper revealed that Western intelligence has identified "administrative preparations" that would allow the Kremlin to draft thousands of Russians without declaring a formal public mobilization, thus avoiding the public backlash faced during the September 2022 call-up.
The proposed mechanism involves coercion, targeting those with outstanding debts, individuals embroiled in legal proceedings, and underperforming students to "voluntarily" sign military contracts.
The legal framework for these actions remains intact, as Putin has not officially repealed the partial mobilization from 2022, granting him the ability to issue new draft orders without further public declarations.
Despite these intelligence reports, the Russian president has denied any such intentions. In early September, he stated that "there is no scenario today that requires a mobilization," while his spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, dismissed claims of recruiting 300,000 individuals by year-end as false.
However, analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggested in mid-September that recruitment bottlenecks and increasing casualties at the front may necessitate some form of mobilization. Putin, they believe, would likely favor a gradual and concealed approach.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky predicted that Russia might enlist up to 300,000 new troops after the parliamentary elections, with Ukrainian intelligence estimating even higher numbers—between 600,000 and 800,000 additional forces by 2026-2027. These figures remain speculative and unconfirmed.
Alongside the mobilization threat, The Telegraph's report highlights Putin's plans to intensify hybrid attacks against Ukraine's European allies, a strategy already evidenced by recent incidents.
On September 13, a Russian drone struck a passenger train on the Kyiv-Warsaw line, just two kilometers from the Polish border in the Volyn region. Although there were no casualties due to a prior warning to the crew, the incident sparked international condemnation. France's foreign minister described the strike as an attempt to "intimidate and divide Europeans."
In response, Poland has bolstered security at its border crossings with Ukraine, and Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned on Wednesday of potential drone and missile attacks on countries supporting Ukraine, including "accidental" strikes aimed at weakening NATO's response.
In this backdrop, Amnesty International reported in September that Russia is recruiting and deploying Cubans to the front lines through deception and coercion, raising concerns about possible human trafficking cases. Meanwhile, new waves of Cubans continue to arrive in Russia for deployment to Ukraine.
Bloomberg reported that Russia intends to amplify its offensives during the winter months, suggesting that meaningful peace talks are unlikely to occur before 2027. This timeline aligns with Tusk's warnings and the assessment that any peace agreement could fall apart once the results of the Russian elections are revealed.
Key Questions on Russia's Potential Mobilization and Conflict Escalation
What is meant by "covert mobilization" in Russia?
"Covert mobilization" refers to Russia's strategy of drafting military personnel without a formal public announcement, thus avoiding widespread public opposition.
Why is Russia considering a covert mobilization?
Russia is considering this method to circumvent public backlash and fill the gaps caused by recruitment challenges and increasing military casualties.
What are hybrid attacks, and how is Russia using them?
Hybrid attacks combine conventional military force with other tactics like cyber attacks, misinformation, and economic pressure to destabilize opponents. Russia is reportedly intensifying these against Ukraine's European allies.