Monreal Sees Harvard Report and Cuba Transformación as Complementary Paths for Island's Future

On Tuesday, Cuban economist Pedro Monreal shared an analysis on his X account, examining the recent report from the Harvard Working Group on Cuba's Future alongside the economic proposal Cuba Transformación, which he co-leads. Monreal concludes that these two initiatives complement each other rather than compete.

According to Monreal, the primary distinction between the two documents lies in their "object and scope." Cuba Transformación—a 120-page roadmap crafted by five independent Cuban economists—is defined as an economic policy proposal that considers a democratic rule of law as its normative horizon. However, it does not outline a political transition, specifying no political modalities, actor sequences, amnesty, transitional government, or constituent assembly.

In contrast, the Harvard report provides concrete political steps. Monreal notes that the document suggests "immediate changes—including a general amnesty and the repeal of restrictive regulations—a facilitative role for the current authorities, a transitional government perceived as legitimate, and a medium-to-long-term constituent assembly aimed at a democratic and pluralistic system."

The Harvard report was released on September 10 by the David Rockefeller Center for Latin American Studies (DRCLAS) and the Cuba Studies Program at the university, after six months of collaboration among 14 Cuban and international academics and experts. Coordinated by Alejandro de la Fuente and Steven Levitsky, it is presented as a "living document, under construction," open to consultations and revisions.

One of the most debated proposals in the report is the role assigned to the current Cuban authorities as "facilitators" in the transition process. Activist Ariel Ruiz Urquiola criticized this aspect a day before Monreal's publication, warning against a "fiction of equality between oppressor and oppressed."

Monreal does not engage in this controversy. His perspective is conciliatory: "These are distinct and complementary pieces. One provides an economic framework with institutional conditions; the other proposes concrete political transition steps."

Cuba Transformación was announced in June 2026, with its full version released in July. Supported by the Cuba Study Group and the Observatorio sobre la Economía Cubana, the proposal aims to replace Cuba's economic model with a social market economy through three phases: emergency stabilization, productive and institutional recovery, and medium-to-long-term development.

Its authors—Monreal, Mauricio de Miranda Parrondo, Omar Everleny Pérez Villanueva, Ricardo Torres Pérez, and Pavel Vidal Alejandro—have clarified from the beginning that the proposal is not directed at the current Cuban government.

Both initiatives are part of a broader ecosystem of plans for the "day after" the dictatorship, which have flourished throughout 2026.

The Liberation Agreement, signed in March in Miami by the Assembly of the Cuban Resistance and the Pasos de Cambio coalition, backed by over 30 exile organizations, proposes the release of more than 1,000 political prisoners, a provisional government, and free elections.

Meanwhile, one of the co-authors of Cuba Transformación, Mauricio de Miranda, suggested a "Marshall Plan" in September for the island's reconstruction, linked to financing from international organizations. Carlos Saladrigas estimated that the initial phase of economic stabilization alone would require between $6 billion and $10 billion.

"This plurality of academic proposals on Cuba is good news: it enriches the debate and reminds us that the economic and political transformation of the country demands rigorous, plural, and sustained thought," Monreal concluded.