At a recent discussion hosted by Florida International University (FIU), a group of experts explored various potential routes for political change in Cuba. The conversation ranged from the possibility of U.S. military intervention to negotiated agreements with the existing regime, as reported by Univision.
The event, presented by the Cuban Studies Institute and the Jack D. Gordon Institute for Public Policy at FIU, featured voices like activist Carolina Barrero, political scientist Armando Chaguaceda Noriega, and national security analyst Brian Fonseca. The panel was led by moderator Sebastián Arcos, director of the Cuban Studies Institute and a former Cuban political prisoner.
This dialogue on transition scenarios occurs amid intensifying U.S. pressure on Havana and an unprecedented internal crisis on the island.
Continuation of the Status Quo: The Likely Scenario
Despite hopes for immediate change, the experts largely agreed that the most likely short-term outcome is the continuation of the current situation. "Given the current indicators, extending the status quo with incremental measures, economic sanctions, and diplomatic actions seems most probable," noted Chaguaceda.
He added that the regime is adept at transferring the human cost of these pressures onto the population. The panelists emphasized that while Havana has shown remarkable resilience in crises, the burden is primarily borne by the populace, not the ruling elite.
Exploring Four Paths to Change
The experts considered four main scenarios for change: humanitarian or military intervention by the U.S., limited coercive actions, internal regime fractures, and negotiated concessions.
Chaguaceda acknowledged the role of military pressure, saying, "Military pressure will have an important role, as there is a credible threat." However, he cautioned that unilateral pressure has its limits. "Only multilateral sanctions are truly effective, which is why the involvement of other actors is crucial," he said.
Fonseca, who co-authored an analysis titled "Cuba's Crisis: Four Near-Term Scenarios" with Liany Díaz González in June 2026 for Americas Quarterly, warned that legal proceedings against Raúl Castro and co-defendants could set a judicial precedent for coercive measures, similar to actions taken before Nicolás Maduro's capture.
Political Change Without Democracy
Carolina Barrero highlighted a critical concern: "The political transformation currently underway in Cuba does not necessarily lead to a democratic transition. This is the primary concern and focus for the Cuban opposition today."
This distinction between political change and democratic transition was a recurring theme throughout the discussion, reflecting fears that the regime might evolve without ceding real power. The panelists noted that the regime is adept at "buying time" and is closely watching the upcoming November elections in the United States.
The Uncertainty Surrounding Raúl Castro
Another significant topic was the role of Raúl Castro, now 95, and how his death might affect the regime's stability. The experts were cautious in their predictions.
"It won't be the same as Fidel's death," one panelist remarked. "When Fidel died, there was already a clear succession plan with Raúl in charge. This time, there will be no historical leader, neither Fidel nor Raúl, though it's likely the family and political structures are preparing for this."
Raúl Castro has not held formal positions since 2021 and was last seen in public on August 14 during celebrations for Fidel Castro's centenary. However, he missed the July 26 event for the first time in decades.
Impact of Sanctions, Crisis, and Protests in Cuba
Between January and August 2026, Washington imposed over 250 new sanctions on Cuba, targeting energy, finance, and the military conglomerate GAESA. On May 1, Trump signed Executive Order 14404, introducing secondary sanctions against third parties dealing with sanctioned Cuban entities. This authority was extended for another year on August 20.
While experts discuss possible scenarios, the ongoing crisis in Cuba remains relentless. The Cuban Conflict Observatory recorded 1,415 protests in July 2026, the highest number in its history.
Key Questions about Cuba's Political Future
What are the most likely outcomes for Cuba's political situation?
Experts believe that in the short term, the continuation of the current status quo with incremental changes, economic sanctions, and diplomatic efforts is the most probable outcome.
How could Raúl Castro's death impact the Cuban regime?
Raúl Castro's passing could create a void in historical leadership, prompting the regime's family and political structures to prepare for maintaining stability without him.
What role does the U.S. play in Cuba's potential political change?
The U.S. plays a significant role through sanctions and potential military intervention, though effective change might require multilateral efforts to apply pressure.
Are political changes in Cuba likely to lead to democracy?
While political changes are underway, they do not necessarily equate to a democratic transition, which remains a primary concern for opposition groups.