Tropical Storm Dolly Could Weaken Before Reaching Lesser Antilles, Warns Rubiera

Cuban meteorologist José Rubiera issued a warning on Thursday regarding the swift progression of Tropical Storm Dolly towards the Lesser Antilles. Despite initial concerns, forecasts suggest the storm might lose strength before entering the Caribbean.

In a special broadcast on his channel, RubieraTiempo, the expert detailed how the tropical wave known as 96L organized significantly overnight and into Thursday morning, becoming the fourth named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.

"Although prevailing conditions aren't conducive for major development, the storm has still become a tropical storm due to certain circumstances," Rubiera explained.

According to Advisory Number 2 from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), issued at 5:00 p.m. Atlantic Time, Dolly was positioned approximately 2,290 kilometers east of the Leeward Islands, boasting maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h.

The storm was moving westward at a speed of 39 km/h, which Rubiera described as "quite fast." Its tropical storm-force winds extended up to 95 kilometers from the center, and at that time, there were no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

What Lies Ahead for Dolly?

Forecasts place the system near the northern Lesser Antilles over the weekend; however, there's a strong likelihood that it will weaken significantly by then.

The NHC's bulletin anticipates minimal change in intensity over the next 48 hours, indicating Dolly might degrade into a tropical wave before reaching the Leeward Islands.

Rubiera agreed with this outlook, stating, "There is a chance it won't arrive as a tropical storm but rather as a weaker entity, possibly as a strong tropical wave."

Nonetheless, the weakening doesn't eliminate the threat of heavy rainfall. The NHC warned that Dolly or its remnants could trigger flash floods in the Leeward Islands from Saturday night onwards.

Rainfall could then extend towards the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola during Sunday and Monday, with mountainous areas under particular scrutiny.

Rubiera urged residents in the eastern Caribbean to stay informed about the storm's progress. "Those in the Lesser Antilles, especially the northeast, and to a lesser extent Puerto Rico, which is trailing, should remain attentive to the situation of this tropical entity heading their way," he advised.

Currently, the forecasts don't indicate any direct threat to Cuba. The potential impact Dolly has after passing through the eastern Caribbean will depend significantly on how well it maintains its structure.

The Atlantic hurricane season extends until November 30. In May, Cuba's Institute of Meteorology (INSMET) predicted a less active season for the island, although they estimated a 75% chance that at least one tropical storm might affect the country during this period.