The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami announced a reduction in the likelihood of the tropical system AL96 developing, which is moving across the eastern Atlantic. The probability dropped from 70% observed the previous day to 60% over the next 48 hours and seven days, moving its classification from "high" to "medium."
This system, linked to a tropical wave, is a low-pressure area located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. It continues to produce disorganized rain showers and thunderstorms as it travels westward and west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
The NHC highlighted that environmental conditions are expected to become "less favorable" over the weekend, which "could limit its development potential." This forecast adjustment is the primary reason for the downgraded prediction.
Despite this less promising outlook, the agency has not ruled out the possibility of the system organizing further in the coming days: "Conditions are somewhat favorable for development over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form within a day or two."
There is no official forecasted path for this system leading towards Cuba, the Caribbean, or Florida. Should AL96 evolve into a named tropical storm, it would be called Dolly, the fourth name on the Atlantic list for the 2026 season.
On Tuesday, the probability of formation rose to 70%, sparking speculation about a potential cyclone. However, Wednesday's 8:00 a.m. Eastern time update tempered those expectations.
The 2026 Atlantic season has been unusually calm, with only three named storms—Arthur, Bertha, and Cristóbal—emerging so far. The NOAA predicts this season to fall below average, with a 75% chance of this outcome, largely due to the influence of El Niño.
Nevertheless, Cuba is statistically entering its peak cyclone risk period of the year. According to Luis Enrique Ramos Guadalupe, a meteorologist from the Cuban Meteorological Society, "The second half of August signals the beginning of the most dangerous cyclone period of the year for Cuba and the rest of the Caribbean."
The Institute of Meteorology (INSMET) maintains a 40% probability that at least one hurricane will hit the island in 2026, with a 75% chance of a tropical storm impact. These figures are particularly significant as Cuba is still recovering from Hurricane Melissa, which struck eastern Cuba in October 2025 as a category 3, affecting over 3.5 million Cubans and damaging more than 116,000 homes.
The name Dolly has historical significance for Cuba: Hurricane Dolly in 2008 brought heavy rainfall to western Cuba—Isla de la Juventud, Pinar del Río, and Havana—before making landfall in Texas.
The climatological peak of the Atlantic season is around September 10, indicating that the period of greatest risk for the region is still ahead.
Frequently Asked Questions about the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season
What is the current status of tropical system AL96?
As of the latest update, the probability of AL96 developing into a tropical cyclone has been reduced to 60% both over the next 48 hours and the next seven days.
What are the chances of a hurricane affecting Cuba in 2026?
The Institute of Meteorology (INSMET) estimates a 40% probability of at least one hurricane impacting Cuba in 2026, with a 75% chance of a tropical storm affecting the island.
Why is the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season predicted to be below average?
The NOAA forecasts a below-average hurricane season in 2026, attributing this to the effects of the El Niño phenomenon, which typically suppresses cyclone formation in the Atlantic.