In the early hours, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami released its 2:00 a.m. EDT advisory focusing on two tropical disturbances in the Atlantic. One of these systems poses a potential threat to both Cuba and Florida in the coming days.
AL96: The System to Watch Closely
The disturbance of greatest concern is AL96, a low-pressure area situated several hundred miles south-southeast of the Cape Verde islands in the eastern tropical Atlantic.
According to the NHC's bulletin, "environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression over the next few days as it moves westward and west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic."
Tropical cyclone formation probabilities are substantial, with a 60% chance in the next 48 hours and a 70% chance over the next seven days, a level deemed high by the agency.
However, the NHC also cautions that "environmental conditions could become less favorable for development by the weekend," introducing uncertainty regarding its medium-term evolution.
While there is no official track toward Cuba or Florida yet, systems originating near Cape Verde often move west and west-northwest, potentially heading toward the Caribbean Sea, south of Cuba, or toward the Bahamas and the southeastern United States.
The most recent precedent is Hurricane Irma from 2017, which formed in the same area, made landfall in Cuba on September 9, and struck Florida the following day.
AL95: A Lesser Threat with a Distant Path
The second disturbance under observation is AL95, located in the central subtropical Atlantic, several hundred miles east-northeast of Bermuda, moving northward at speeds between 24 and 32 km/h.
The NHC describes this system with less optimism: "recent wind data obtained via scatterometer indicate that the circulation center is broad and elongated, while associated rainfall activity remains disorganized."
Regarding its immediate evolution, the agency states that "this system could still become a short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm today before encountering increasingly unfavorable conditions tonight and Wednesday, likely ending its development chances."
Its formation probabilities remain at 40% both in 48 hours and over seven days, and its northward trajectory does not pose a direct threat to Cuba or Florida.
Cuba Enters Peak Cyclone Risk Period
Both systems emerge at a critical time in the meteorological calendar.
According to Professor Luis Enrique Ramos Guadalupe from the Cuban Meteorological Society, "the second half of August marks the start of the highest cyclone risk period of the year for Cuba and the rest of the Caribbean."
Historical records support this warning: between 1791 and 2022, the island was hit by 19 hurricanes in August, accounting for 16% of all hurricanes impacting it over those 231 years.
The 2026 cyclone season has been unusually quiet thus far, with only three named storms—Arthur, Bertha, and Cristóbal—and the NOAA forecasts a 75% chance of the season being below normal, influenced by El Niño.
Cuba faces this period while its population is still recovering from Hurricane Melissa, which made landfall in the eastern part of the island in October 2025 as a Category 3 storm, affecting over 3.5 million Cubans and damaging more than 116,000 homes in Santiago de Cuba, Holguín, Granma, and Guantánamo.
The INSMET predicts a 40% chance of at least one hurricane affecting the island in 2026 and a 75% chance of impact from a tropical storm.
Frequently Asked Questions about Atlantic Tropical Systems
What is the likelihood of AL96 becoming a tropical depression?
AL96 has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression within 48 hours and a 70% chance within the next seven days.
Is AL95 expected to affect Cuba or Florida?
No, AL95 is moving northward and does not pose a direct threat to Cuba or Florida.