Military Intervention in Cuba by 2026? Raul Mas Canosa Predicts Change "By Any Means Necessary"

Cuban-American businessman Raul Mas Canosa asserts that a regime shift in Cuba is unavoidable before the end of 2026, or at the latest by early 2027. He did not rule out the possibility of this change occurring through military means. His comments were part of an interview with Tania Costa for CiberCuba following the primaries held on Tuesday, August 18, in Florida.

"There will be a change in Cuba, one way or another. And that depends on those in power in Cuba. How do they want to leave? Alive or dead? It's as simple as that. I see it as black and white," stated Mas Canosa, the younger brother of historic exile leader Jorge Mas Canosa.

U.S. Military Readiness

Regarding Washington's operational capacity, the banker and political analyst was forthright: "We have military forces in the area. They're ready. If given the order tomorrow, it's not about starting to organize and bring a warship from here or there. The troops are already there. Any military action could be executed in a relatively short period."

This scenario gains significance with the new leadership of the Southern Command under General Francis Donovan, who assumed the position in February 2026 and met with Revolutionary Armed Forces officials at the Guantanamo Naval Base perimeter in May, in what was described as an unusual meeting. Donovan, however, told the Senate in March that "there are no drills or military preparations to invade, occupy, or control Cuba."

Pressure on the Cuban Regime

The Cuban-American businessman also emphasized his belief that the new head of the U.S. Southern Command conveyed a clear message to the Cuban regime during his May 2026 visit: "Either you change, or I'll change you. Period."

Mas Canosa acknowledged that Washington has not yet made a decision to act. "I don't think they've made that decision yet. They're giving more time to see if certain people come to understand this won't end well for them."

The banker admitted that the situation has become more complicated than he initially expected but maintained his forecast. "I always thought there would be a change by the end of the year, but if not by the end of this year, perhaps at the beginning of the next."

Personal Meeting with General Donovan

His views on General Francis Donovan are based on a meeting they had in May. Raul Mas Canosa discussed his brother Jorge with Donovan, who agreed to pose with him for a photo, shaking hands. "The man is definitely different from other Southern Command leaders. I talked to him about my brother Jorge and his relentless fight against the Castros. I mentioned that our family continues that battle. We took a first photo side by side. After hearing my story, the general insisted on retaking the photo while shaking hands," explained Raul Mas Canosa, referring to the origin of the image accompanying this article.

Regarding the message he believes is being sent to the Cuban regime, Mas Canosa was unequivocal: "I think the message is being sent, maybe not in the way I'm saying it, but I believe in those conversations they are being told exactly the same: by any means necessary. You decide."

Cuban Exodus Unlikely

The interviewer asked if the regime might resort to the same strategy Fidel Castro used during the 1994 raft crisis—opening the borders to relieve internal pressure—when more than 35,000 Cubans set sail in makeshift vessels for the United States. Mas Canosa replied with a single phrase: "I don't think so."

His statements come amid a severe economic crisis on the island, with power outages potentially worsening the internal situation and forecasts of a GDP decline between 6.5% and 7.2% for 2026. The regime, meanwhile, declared in July that it would withstand any military aggression.