The America First Policy Institute (AFPI) unveiled a report titled "The Dictatorship Next Door: Cuba and the Fight for the Western Hemisphere" on Wednesday, outlining twelve strategic recommendations for the Trump administration to address the regime led by Miguel Díaz-Canel.
Compiled by Melissa Ford Maldonado, who heads the institute's Initiative for the Western Hemisphere, the report portrays Cuba as more vulnerable now than at any point since the Soviet Union's collapse. The island nation is facing a declining economy, a population that has shrunk by nearly a quarter in just four years, and the loss of Venezuelan oil that had long propped up the regime.
Following the capture of Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces on January 3, 2026, Cuba saw its primary oil source vanish. Mexico, initially stepping in to fill the gap, reduced its supplies as President Trump threatened tariffs on countries providing oil to the island, exacerbating blackouts that in some areas exceed 20 hours a day.
Key Recommendations for Addressing the Cuban Regime
1. Establish a Permanent Military Presence in the Caribbean. The report suggests deploying dedicated forces to the Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) to create a lasting military presence, rather than borrowing from other commands. In May 2026, the U.S. deployed over 1,300 Marines to the Caribbean alongside the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz as part of Operation Southern Spear.
2. Expand Terrorism Designations. Evaluate if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) and the military conglomerate GAESA meet the criteria for designation as Foreign Terrorist Organizations. SOUTHCOM has already identified GAESA as a threat to U.S. interests.
3. Remove U.S. Adversaries from Cuba. Close Chinese espionage facilities on the island and end Russian military cooperation, dismantling the platform from which hostile powers project influence just 90 miles from Florida.
4. Prevent Cuba from Supporting Foreign Autocrats. Make any easing of sanctions contingent on Cuba halting the deployment of its security personnel abroad.
5. Enhance Counterintelligence Efforts in the U.S. Cuban espionage on American soil demands full attention, as documented by the State Department in July 2026, highlighting six decades of Cuban intelligence activities.
6. Dismantle Party Control Over the Economy. Disband GAESA and return its assets to the Cuban people. The conglomerate controls key sectors such as tourism, remittances, ports, and foreign trade. In July, the U.S. expanded sanctions against GAESA through an executive order.
7. Increase Economic Pressure. Broaden existing sanctions and target foreign banks that sustain the regime, cutting off financial channels that allow it to endure despite internal collapse.
8. Demand Free Elections. No normalization of relations without elections overseen by international observers, recognition of legal opposition, and the release of political prisoners.
9. Accountability for Past Abuses. Cuba must return U.S. fugitives it harbors, free all political prisoners, and open its historical archives.
10. Break the Information Monopoly. Develop more agile digital efforts to reach Cubans via channels the regime cannot block, replacing traditional broadcasting models.
11. Integrate Cuba into Hemispheric Security Framework. The regime must cease being part of the problem before gaining the benefits of belonging to the regional security system.
12. No Normalization Without Democratic Conditions. The report stresses that any agreement must be conditioned on monitored elections, recognized legal opposition, and the release of prisoners, underscoring democratic guarantees as the non-negotiable foundation of any negotiation.
The Strategic Context
This report aligns with the so-called "Donroe Doctrine," under which Washington has declared it will not tolerate hostile powers establishing military, intelligence, or economic bases in the Americas.
Ford Maldonado succinctly captured the essence of the report: "The Cuban Revolution was never confined to the island. It is an international project aimed at weakening the United States, bolstering its adversaries, and exporting revolution worldwide."
The document follows a State Department report presented by Marco Rubio, which concluded that Cuba remains a substantial national security threat. Both reports advocate for maximum pressure on the regime, indicating that such efforts will not only continue but intensify.
FAQs on Strategic Measures Against the Cuban Regime
What is the purpose of establishing a permanent military presence in the Caribbean?
The goal is to create a lasting military presence through dedicated forces to the Southern Command, enhancing security and readiness in the region.
Why is dismantling GAESA considered crucial?
GAESA controls significant sectors of Cuba's economy. Disbanding it would return assets to the population and reduce the regime's economic power.
How does the report propose to break Cuba's information monopoly?
The report suggests using agile digital efforts to reach Cubans through channels the regime cannot block, thus bypassing traditional broadcasting methods.