The America First Policy Institute (AFPI) released a report on Wednesday urging the Trump administration to establish a lasting U.S. military presence in the Caribbean as a primary measure to address the Cuban regime, which it labels as an active strategic threat to U.S. national security.
Authored by Melissa Ford Maldonado, head of the institute's Americas Initiative, the document, titled "The Dictatorship Next Door: Cuba and the Struggle for the Western Hemisphere," provides 12 specific policy recommendations. At the top of this list is the call for a permanent military presence.
Strengthening Regional Military Collaborations
Rather than proposing the construction of large military bases in Cuba or other Caribbean nations, the report suggests expanding access agreements, overflight rights, and security cooperation enclaves with allied governments in the region. The model for this initiative is inspired by the former Caribbean Defense Command, established in the 1940s as a precursor to the current Southern Command (SOUTHCOM).
The AFPI infographic succinctly captures this idea: "Dedicated forces assigned to SOUTHCOM, not borrowed from other commands." The recommendation aims to institutionalize what have previously been rotational deployments.
In recent months, the U.S. deployed over 1,300 Marines in the Caribbean alongside the USS Nimitz aircraft carrier and advanced surveillance aircraft as part of Operation Southern Spear. The report recommends making such deployments permanent and structural.
Cuba's Increasing Fragility
The report highlights Cuba as the longest-standing dictatorship in the Western Hemisphere, enduring for over 67 years since the 1959 Revolution. It argues that the regime is currently at its most vulnerable in decades. "Cuba is more fragile today than at any point since the Soviet collapse. Its economy is failing, its population has shrunk by nearly a quarter in just four years, and the loss of Venezuelan oil has removed one of the regime's last lifelines," states the AFPI.
A significant turning point was the capture of Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces on January 3, 2026, which severed the Venezuelan oil supply to the island. Mexico, which had begun covering part of this deficit, reduced its shipments due to Trump's tariff threats on countries supplying oil to Cuba, exacerbating blackouts that exceed 20 hours daily in some areas.
International Threat to the U.S.
Ford Maldonado was unequivocal in presenting the report: "Cuba poses a massive threat to U.S. national security. It's a hostile communist regime just 90 miles from Florida, with a 67-year track record of actively working against U.S. interests, supporting our adversaries, and exporting revolution worldwide."
The analyst further described the Castro project as inherently international: "The Cuban Revolution has never been confined to the island. It has always aimed to weaken the United States, bolster its adversaries, and spread revolution globally."
The document also warns that Miguel Díaz-Canel's regime has responded to pressure not with political openness, but by clinging to the Communist Party, security services, and military. Additionally, it notes that Havana has expanded cooperation with Russia, China, and Iran, turning the island into a platform from which adversary powers "project influence in the Western Hemisphere," a mere 90 miles from Florida.
AFPI's Influence and Trump Administration Ties
The institute is not a peripheral player in Washington. Founded in 2021 by former officials from Trump's first administration, several of its former leaders now hold key positions: Brooke Rollins serves as Secretary of Agriculture, Linda McMahon leads Education, John Ratcliffe heads the CIA, and Kash Patel directs the FBI.
The report aligns with the "Donroe Doctrine," a policy under which Washington has declared it will not tolerate hostile powers establishing military, intelligence, or economic bases in the Americas.
This document complements the State Department's July 2026 report titled "Cuba: The Capital of 21st Century Communism," presented by Marco Rubio, which documented six decades of Cuban espionage against the U.S. and concluded that the island remains a significant national security threat.
"Just 90 miles from Florida, the Cuban regime remains a strategic outpost for America's adversaries. Protecting the homeland requires a sustained America First strategy of maximum pressure," the report concludes.
Key Insights on U.S. Military Strategy in the Caribbean
Why is a permanent U.S. military presence in the Caribbean recommended?
The AFPI report suggests a permanent U.S. military presence in the Caribbean to address the Cuban regime, which it views as a significant strategic threat to U.S. national security.
What historical model inspires the proposed military strategy?
The proposed strategy is inspired by the former Caribbean Defense Command, established in the 1940s, serving as a precursor to the current Southern Command (SOUTHCOM).
How does the report view the current state of Cuba?
The report describes Cuba as more fragile than ever since the Soviet collapse, with a failing economy, declining population, and depleted resources due to reduced Venezuelan oil supplies.