Orlando Plá Tomás, a Cuban economist based in Mexico, has pinpointed two crucial conditions necessary for any economic recovery in Cuba: upholding property rights and ensuring economic agents' freedom of action. He elaborated on these points during an interview with Tania Costa, where he explored potential solutions to the island's ongoing crisis.
"An initial structure is property, and another fundamental element is freedom," Plá stated. "These two components are vital to begin crafting an economic recovery. The framework for property rights must be clear, and economic agents must have freedom of action," he emphasized.
To support his argument, Plá referred to an unconventional interpretation of Marx's historical materialism. He argued that the sequence of production modes described by Marx implicitly shows that "productivity is directly proportional to the freedom of productive forces." Thus, he reasoned, "feudalism is more productive than slavery, and capitalism is more productive than feudalism."
Following this logic, Plá concluded that "communism represents economic regression because it precisely restricts the freedom of productive forces," portraying Cuba's current system as a structural barrier to genuine growth.
Global Economic Insights: Lessons from Nobel Laureates
Plá's analysis aligns with the findings of the 2024 Nobel Prize in Economics winners—Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, and James A. Robinson—who demonstrated that institutions safeguarding property and economic freedom are key to national development. "With strong institutions upholding these elements, growth is possible," noted the economist, citing historical Venice as an example of progress thriving under such conditions, only to falter if the structure changes.
Plá pointed to Norway as contemporary empirical evidence: "Greater freedom leads to greater wealth," he summarized.
The Dire Economic Context in Cuba
This diagnosis holds significant weight amid Cuba's most severe crisis in decades. At the beginning of the year, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) projected a 6.5% contraction in Cuba's GDP by 2026—the worst in Latin America—while the Economist Intelligence Unit estimated a 7.2% decline. The cumulative contraction since 2019 ranges between 23% and 26%.
In June 2026, Cuba's National Assembly of People's Power approved a package of 176 economic measures, including private banking, lifting the cap on microenterprise workers, and greater openness to foreign investment. However, Plá argues that these reforms are unfeasible without deep systemic change, as the regime has spent nearly seven decades dismantling the very foundations—trust and institutions—needed to implement them.
Other independent economists, such as Elías Amor and Pedro Monreal, have reached similar conclusions regarding the insufficiency of the measures without more profound structural reforms.
"We've seen progress when these two things are respected and how that progress ends if the structure changes," Plá concluded, encapsulating in a single sentence both the diagnosis of Cuba's failure and the minimum condition for reversing it.
Key Questions on Cuba's Economic Challenges
What are the essential conditions for Cuba's economic recovery according to Orlando Plá?
The essential conditions identified by Orlando Plá for economic recovery in Cuba are the safeguarding of property rights and the freedom of economic agents to act.
How does the current Cuban system hinder economic growth?
The current Cuban system hinders economic growth by restricting the freedom of productive forces, which Plá argues is crucial for productivity and progress.
What lessons can be learned from historical and contemporary examples regarding economic freedom?
Lessons from historical examples like Venice and contemporary ones like Norway demonstrate that economic freedom and strong institutions lead to prosperity and growth.