On Wednesday, Cuban meteorologist José Rubiera raised alarms through a video on his channel, RubieraTiempo, indicating that the tropical Atlantic has become more active. He cautioned that the eastern Caribbean should remain vigilant for the potential development of one or more tropical cyclones in the upcoming days.
The primary area of concern is Invest 92L, located east of the Lesser Antilles. The United States' National Hurricane Center (NHC) has assigned it an 80% chance of evolving into a tropical cyclone.
Its development probability has increased rapidly: from 20% on August 8, it rose to 40% the next day, reached 60% on Monday, and finally hit 80% by Wednesday.
"We have 92L, a system under investigation with high potential to become a tropical cyclone in the coming days. Behind it, there's another one, and this is not the end," Rubiera cautioned.
Potential Impact on the Lesser Antilles
Forecast models mainly indicate that the central and northern Lesser Antilles could be the impact zone, although Rubiera advised caution: "The paths point towards the Lesser Antilles. However, these trajectories should be taken with extreme caution."
Regarding intensity, models currently predict 92L will only reach tropical storm status and weaken upon entering the Caribbean due to strong vertical wind shear dominating the region.
Uncertainty in Weather Conditions
However, Rubiera emphasized that these conditions might change: "It might not form, or it could quickly weaken due to strong upper-level currents before reaching the Caribbean area. But all these conditions can change."
Following 92L, there's another system identified as 93L with a 30% chance of developing, alongside a third active tropical wave still within Africa, expected to emerge into the Atlantic in about a day and a half.
Tropical Waves on the Horizon
"It's a parade of tropical waves with development potential," the expert summarized. Should 92L escalate to a tropical storm, it will be named Dolly, marking the fourth of the 2026 Atlantic season.
Meanwhile, the NHC named Tropical Storm Cristóbal (AL032026) on Wednesday, the third named system of the season.
No Immediate Threat from Cristóbal
Rubiera clarified that this system poses no practical threat: it is moving over cold waters in the North Atlantic, far from the Caribbean, and is expected to dissipate within 48 hours.
"We must closely observe the future trajectory and evolution of any tropical cyclones that may arise from this," concluded Rubiera, urging continued monitoring of 92L and subsequent systems in the coming days.
The NHC confirmed that at 03:00 UTC on Thursday, Cristóbal was located about 1,095 km east of the Azores, with winds of 65 km/h, predicting its dissipation by that night.
The INSMET issued Tropical Cyclone Alert No. 1 for Cristóbal, stating, "This system poses no danger to Cuba and is only of interest for navigation."
Peak Hurricane Season Approaching
The timing increases the need for vigilance: the historically most active cyclonic period in the Atlantic spans from mid-August to mid-October.
The 2026 season had been less active than usual until August, influenced by the El Niño phenomenon, which creates strong wind shear that hinders cyclone formation.
In May, INSMET had forecasted the formation of 11 tropical cyclones in the basin, with a 75% chance that at least one tropical storm would impact Cuba and a 40% chance of a hurricane doing so.
Understanding the Caribbean's Tropical Cyclone Activity
What is Invest 92L?
Invest 92L is a weather system under investigation in the Atlantic, with a high probability of developing into a tropical cyclone.
What impact could 92L have on the Caribbean?
Forecasts suggest that 92L could affect the central and northern Lesser Antilles, although its development and trajectory remain uncertain.
How does El Niño affect tropical cyclone formation?
El Niño produces strong wind shear in the Atlantic, which can suppress cyclone formation and activity.