Cuban political scientist and historian Armando Chaguaceda took to Facebook on Saturday to share a thought-provoking analysis composed of six key points. Utilizing a biological metaphor, he diagnoses the Cuban crisis, portraying the nation as a patient, the Castro regime as a disease, and the international community as a medical team that has failed in its duty.
"The Cuban nation is a living, albeit fatigued, organism striving to survive. Many of its internal organs have passively coexisted with the affliction; however, they have started to mount a defensive response. Meanwhile, some external organs have managed to partially evade the ailment, but over time they have forgotten how to use their strength to combat it," Chaguaceda explained.
This depiction distinguishes between the society enduring hardships on the island and the diaspora, critiquing the latter for losing the habit of organized action.
Delving into the root of the problem, the analysis is straightforward: "Castrismo is that chronic, deadly disease which, initially promising to be a bodily benefit, has parasitized the Cuban nation for seven decades. Its pace and profound effects now threaten the very existence of the nation and, paradoxically, its own."
The Role of the United States and the International Community
Regarding the United States, Chaguaceda offers a nuanced perspective: "The United States is a medical team with contradictory manners and goals, yet it is the only one that has shown proximity, resources, and interests to address the convalescence in some way. Recently, part of the team has correctly increased the dosage of recovery, offering palliatives in parallel... but hesitating to operate."
He adds a caution about another faction of this team: "Another part of the team, covertly, seems intent on keeping the parasite alive for their own research and business gains."
The harshest criticism is reserved for the international community: "Most of the medical community globally has ignored the patient's cries; some even admire the disease and blame the patient for its spread. They are, therefore, clearly complicit in the ailment."
Escalating Social Protests and Economic Challenges
This reflection emerges amid unprecedented social protests in Cuba. The Cuban Observatory of Conflicts documented 107 street demonstrations in June 2026 alone, nearly doubling the previous record. Cubalex reported 319 repressive events that same month, with director Laritza Diversent emphatically stating, "The militarization targets the Cuban population, not an external enemy." Independent organizations report hundreds of political prisoners remain detained by the regime.
The energy collapse exacerbates the situation: on August 4, the country reached another peak in its energy crisis, affecting 2,411 megawatts (MW) and leaving more than 70% of the population without electricity simultaneously. The informal dollar rate soared to 670 Cuban pesos in July, up from 435 in December 2025, while the CEPAL forecasts a GDP contraction between 6.5% and 15% for 2026, the worst in Latin America.
This publication aligns with Chaguaceda's year-long analysis. In July, he stated that "in Cuba today, protests occur every day and night as never before in the last half-century," and in June, he warned that the regime is experiencing "the weakest moment in its entire history," while noting that "the Cuban system cannot be unlocked without effective real force."
"The situation is critical for all: patient, parasite, and doctors. The responses must address—analytically, politically, and ethically—this harsh reality," Chaguaceda concludes in his post.
Understanding the Cuban Crisis
What metaphor does Armando Chaguaceda use to describe the Cuban crisis?
Chaguaceda uses a biological metaphor, depicting the nation as a patient, the Castro regime as a disease, and the international community as a failing medical team.
How does Chaguaceda view the role of the United States in the Cuban crisis?
He sees the United States as a medical team with contradictory aims but recognizes it as the only entity showing proximity and resources to address Cuba's recovery, though hesitating to take decisive action.
What is the current state of social protests and energy issues in Cuba?
Cuba is witnessing unprecedented social protests, with a significant increase in demonstrations and repressive events. Additionally, the country faces severe energy shortages, affecting a vast majority of the population.