The administration under President Donald Trump is seeking a figure in Cuba who could emulate the role of Delcy Rodríguez in Venezuela—someone from within the regime's own ranks capable of taking the helm during a transitional phase and collaborating closely with the United States.
This pursuit is a key element of a report released on Friday by The New York Times, which highlights that the Trump administration has been urging U.S. intelligence agencies to pinpoint a current or former Cuban regime official who could emerge as a viable power alternative in Havana.
The example being considered by Washington is Venezuela. Following the capture of Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces in January, Delcy Rodríguez stepped in as interim president, becoming the central figure in steering the Venezuelan state apparatus amid its new political landscape.
The Times reports that U.S. officials viewed Rodríguez as a pragmatic leader capable of assuming authority without creating an institutional void and willing to work in close alignment with Washington.
Challenges in Finding a Cuban Counterpart
Some members of the Trump administration believe a similar figure can be found in Cuba. However, U.S. intelligence agencies have highlighted a significant issue: the Cuban regime lacks an easily identifiable Delcy Rodríguez equivalent.
According to individuals with access to intelligence assessments cited by the newspaper, American agencies perceive Cuba as more akin to Iran rather than Venezuela in terms of potential succession scenarios.
This distinction is crucial for Washington's strategy. Current evaluations suggest that there are few pragmatic figures well-positioned to seize power if Raúl Castro were to be removed from the political scene or if the U.S. managed to oust the current leadership.
In contrast, many of the potential successors appear to belong to the regime's hardliner factions. This poses a clear risk for any U.S. strategy: toppling or displacing a segment of the leadership does not necessarily ensure that replacements will be more amenable to negotiating with Washington. It might even result in the opposite.
Lessons from Iran's Experience
The Times points out the parallels with the challenges faced by the U.S. and Israel in Iran, where attempts to find more pragmatic leaders proved far more complicated than anticipated.
The American interest in finding a successor from within the system also indicates the type of scenario Washington is considering. The newspaper describes the strategy as more of a "regime alteration" rather than a "regime change."
However, in Cuba, identifying such a "Delcy" is considerably more difficult due to the closed power structure and the significant influence of military, security, and intelligence sectors.
This U.S. initiative coincides with the CIA's intensified operations concerning the island. The New York Times revealed this week that the agency has clandestinely established a task force specifically focused on Cuba, aiming to exploit divisions within the ruling elite and promote the rise of more pragmatic figures.
High-Level Meetings in Havana
This strategy also lends new significance to the visit made by CIA Director John Ratcliffe to Havana on May 14. Ratcliffe engaged with key figures at the heart of the Cuban security apparatus, including Interior Minister Lázaro Alberto Álvarez Casas; Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, known as "El Cangrejo" and grandson of Raúl Castro; and the head of the Intelligence Directorate at MININT, Ramón Romero Curbelo.
Washington faces a paradox: increasing pressure on the Cuban leadership could create an opportunity to transform the island's political system, yet its own intelligence agencies caution that the potential successor may not be more pragmatic than those currently in power.
The quest for a "Cuban Delcy Rodríguez" thus becomes a central yet unresolved component of Trump's policy towards the island.
Understanding U.S. Strategy in Cuba
What is the "Delcy Model" the Trump administration is seeking for Cuba?
The "Delcy Model" refers to finding a figure within the Cuban regime who could transition into power during a changeover period, similar to how Delcy Rodríguez assumed leadership in Venezuela, and work closely with the United States.
Why does U.S. intelligence warn against the possibility of a Cuban Delcy Rodríguez?
U.S. intelligence agencies caution that the Cuban regime does not have an easily recognizable figure like Delcy Rodríguez. Potential successors are mostly hardliners, which complicates the search for a pragmatic leader willing to negotiate with Washington.
How does the situation in Cuba compare to Venezuela and Iran?
Cuba's situation is perceived as more similar to Iran's than Venezuela's, with a closed power structure and influence from hardliner factions making it challenging to find a pragmatic successor within the regime.
What actions has the CIA taken regarding Cuba?
The CIA has established a task force focused on Cuba, aiming to exploit divisions within the ruling elite and promote the rise of more pragmatic figures. This includes high-level meetings in Havana with key figures in the Cuban security apparatus.