U.S. Considers Potential Players for Political Transition in Cuba, Reports Axios

A recent Axios report reveals that the Trump administration is not only intensifying its economic pressure on Cuba but is also actively examining potential members for a political transition coalition on the island.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has engaged in discussions with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, known as "El Cangrejo," the grandson of Raúl Castro and a MININT colonel, to assess his potential role in leading or participating in a prospective transitional government.

Nevertheless, a U.S. official cited by Axios expressed skepticism about the feasibility of this proposition, questioning the future status and protection of Rodríguez Castro once Raúl Castro is no longer in power.

Simultaneously, Washington is attempting to engage other Cuban officials to forge a reformist alliance, although it acknowledges the limitations of such efforts. "It's difficult to fully discern due to the system's paranoia," admitted another anonymous official.

This exploration of transitional scenarios is occurring amidst the most intense pressure campaign the U.S. has ever conducted against Cuba. Since January 2026, the administration has undertaken over two dozen separate actions: imposing sanctions on at least 40 entities and 38 individuals connected to the regime, urging allied countries to abandon the Cuban medical export program, and releasing reports on Havana's intelligence activities.

As Rubio explained to Axios, "We're trying to show them there are no escape valves. Each time they devise a new mechanism to escape the noose, we simply close it off... They can't expect us to surrender. This won't disappear in the next two and a half years."

The most significant blow to the Cuban economy came with the capture of Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces on January 3, 2026, which severed the supply of up to 100,000 barrels of oil per day that Venezuela had been sending to Cuba.

Rubio summarized the situation: "For the first time in Cuba's history, it lacks two things it has always relied on: an external sponsor and the absence of U.S. attention as a top priority."

In this vacuum, American companies, particularly fuel distributors, have begun to fill the void left by foreign firms fleeing from the threat of sanctions. U.S. fuel exports to Cuba reached $96 million in the first half of the year, with over half occurring in June alone.

John Kavulich, president of the U.S.-Cuba Trade and Economic Council, remarked on the situation, stating, "Trump and Rubio have launched the most effective sanctions program against a target country that any of their predecessors have managed. We've been observing since 1994 and have never witnessed anything like this."

Rubio dismissed the package of 176 economic measures approved by Cuba's National Assembly, which includes opening to the private sector and partially took effect this week, as "fake reforms." For the Secretary of State, the regime is merely stalling for time and attempting to evade sanctions.

A day earlier, the New York Times had disclosed the secret creation of a CIA task force focused on Cuba, aimed at creating fissures within the Cuban political elite. A senior administration official downplayed the leak, stating that there was "nothing new beyond making it clear to the regime that we are watching them."

Rubio concluded his interview with Axios by summarizing Washington's strategic gamble: "I am confident that by the end of this administration, at the very least, Cuba will be on an irreversible path toward a different future."