The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami released an official advisory this Saturday, cautioning that despite the unusually calm Atlantic 2026 hurricane season, vigilance should not be relaxed as August approaches.
"A quiet start to the season does not mean we can let our guard down," the agency stated on its social media platforms.
According to the NHC, the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) in the Atlantic is approximately 75% below the average for this point in the season, and the seven-day tropical outlook map shows no active disturbances or potential development zones across the basin.
Nevertheless, the organization emphasized that August historically heralds a transition towards heightened cyclonic activity.
Climatological Insights from the National Hurricane Center
The NHC’s climatological data, derived from 77 years of records between 1944 and 2020 and standardized over a 100-year period, identify the peak of the Atlantic season around September 10. On average, about 113 tropical storms and hurricanes occur by this date for every 100 seasons.
The 2026 season has been remarkably serene so far.
Only two named storms have been recorded up to the start of August: Arthur, which lasted less than a day from June 17 to 18, and Bertha, which formed on July 20 and made landfall two days later in Louisiana after affecting parts of the northern Gulf Coast.
Neither storm posed a threat to Cuba. Combined, they generated an ACE index of roughly 2.6, about 75% below what is typical for this phase of the season.
El Niño's Impact on the Atlantic Season
The primary factor contributing to this calm is the presence of El Niño, which has a 98% chance of persisting through the peak months of August, September, and October. This phenomenon increases vertical wind shear in the Atlantic, hindering the organization and intensification of tropical cyclones.
Leading forecasting centers have consistently predicted a less active season this year.
In May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) projected a below-average season, with expectations of eight to 14 named storms and a 55% likelihood of reduced activity. In July, Colorado State University (CSU) adjusted its forecast to nine named storms, four hurricanes, and one major hurricane.
Specifically for Cuba, the Institute of Meteorology (INSMET) estimated in May a 40% chance that at least one hurricane could affect the island, and a 75% chance that at least one tropical storm will impact it during the season.
Understanding the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Why is the 2026 hurricane season unusually calm?
The calmness of the 2026 hurricane season is primarily attributed to the presence of El Niño, which increases vertical wind shear in the Atlantic, making it difficult for tropical cyclones to organize and intensify.
What is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index?
The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index is a metric used to express the energy used by tropical cyclones during their lifetime. It is a measure of the strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes.
How does El Niño affect hurricane formation?
El Niño influences hurricane formation by increasing vertical wind shear in the Atlantic, which disrupts the development and intensification of tropical cyclones, often leading to a less active hurricane season.