On Monday, Cuba is set to experience widespread power outages across the nation.
The Electric Union reports that during the peak evening hours, the electrical system's capacity will only reach 1,150 MW, while the anticipated demand stands at 3,250 MW.
This situation forecasts a shortfall of 2,130 MW, leaving roughly 65% of the country without electricity.
By dawn, the deficit had already hit around 1,700 MW, and by midday, the estimated shortfall is projected to be 1,600 MW.
On Sunday, July 26, power disruptions lasted the entire day, including overnight hours, peaking at 2,083 MW of impact at 8:10 PM, affecting all provinces indiscriminately.
Lázaro Guerra Hernández, the General Director of Electricity at the Ministry of Energy and Mines, acknowledged on Canal Caribe that Monday's power disruption slightly surpasses that of Sunday.
"Yesterday's maximum impact was 2,083 MW, and today we anticipate a midday shortfall of 1,600 MW. For peak system demand, we have a capacity of 1,150 MW against a projected demand of 3,250 MW, resulting in a 2,130 MW shortfall," he explained.
The reporter from the National Load Dispatch Center candidly summarized the situation: "It's a challenging Monday with complicated system operations due to the low generation capacity availability."
Power Generation Challenges
Four thermal generation units are currently out of service at the Máximo Gómez plant in Mariel, the Antonio Guiteras plant in Matanzas, the Lidio Ramón Pérez plant in Felton, and the Antonio Maceo plant in Renté, Santiago de Cuba.
Additionally, four more blocks are undergoing maintenance.
Exacerbating the issue, 106 distributed generation plants are offline due to fuel shortages, along with the Regla and Melones barges and the Mariel and Moa fuel plants.
Guerra Hernández admitted that the collapse is a result of "a combination of fuel shortages and the shutdown of generating units."
The country's most powerful plant, the Guiteras, with a capacity of about 200 MW, went offline again early Sunday due to a leak in the economizer.
So far this year, it has experienced at least 17 unplanned outages. Experts hope to access the boiler once it cools down to assess the damage.
Historical Context of Recent Crises
This Monday follows July 26, a significant date in the Cuban regime's calendar.
The irony was not lost: comedian Ulises Toirac captured the sentiment of millions of Cubans with a phrase posted on Sunday: "Nice blackout on the eve in honor of the 26th... Indeed, it's always the 26th."
This crisis marks the most severe month in recent Cuban electrical history.
On July 8, the country recorded an all-time deficit high of 2,341 MW, and on July 24, the impact nearly reached another peak at 2,315 MW.
In 2026, Cuba has endured at least four total blackouts, the last of which, on July 6, left approximately 9.6 million people without power.
No new generating units are expected to join the system this Monday. The only relief prospects—Unit 6 in Mariel and a Renté unit—are anticipated later in the week, with no specific date set.
Understanding Cuba's Power Crisis
What is causing the power outages in Cuba?
The power outages in Cuba are largely due to a shortfall in electricity generation caused by fuel shortages and the shutdown of several generating units.
How significant is the power shortfall in Cuba?
The power shortfall on Monday is expected to be 2,130 MW, which could leave about 65% of the country without electricity.
Are there any plans to resolve Cuba's power crisis?
Currently, no new generating units are expected to come online immediately. Some relief might come later in the week, but no specific dates have been set.