Cuba's Economic Decline: From Prosperity to Poverty

According to historical reconstructions by the esteemed Maddison Project Database, Cuba ranked 30th globally in real GDP per capita in the early 1950s. Today, the nation has plummeted to approximately 199th place. Back then, Cuba's economy outperformed or was on par with today's economic powerhouses like Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, and was comparable to Italy and Spain.

The Urgency of Rebuilding Cuba's Infrastructure

This past Wednesday, the American Museum of the Cuban Diaspora hosted the forum "Rebuilding Cuba's Infrastructure as Part of the Democratic Transition." Key speakers included Marcell Felipe, president of "IDEAs for Cuba," Sebastián Arcos from the Cuban Studies Institute at Florida International University, Helena Solo-Gabriele, an engineer and professor at the University of Miami, and Jorge Piñón, a researcher at the University of Texas at Austin's Energy Institute.

Experts estimate that a comprehensive reconstruction of the nation requires between $200 billion and $500 billion. Such figures reflect the dire state to which the Castro regime has reduced Cuba's economy. Comparing Cuba's reality with other countries in terms of gross domestic product per capita reveals a stark contrast.

Understanding GDP and Its Global Implications

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a measure of the total value of all final goods and services produced within a country over a specified period. It serves as a fundamental indicator of an economy's size and growth. Nominal GDP is assessed at current prices, and for international comparisons, it is typically expressed in dollars based on a specific exchange rate.

GDP per capita is calculated by dividing the total GDP by the population. While it does not equate to average salaries or mean that each citizen receives that amount, it provides insight into the level of economic production and wealth available per person. Although it doesn't account for income inequality, institutional quality, or actual income distribution, it is useful for comparing the economic performance of different nations.

Cuba's Position in the Global Economy

At the top of the global rankings are small financial or export-driven economies such as Luxembourg, Ireland, Switzerland, Singapore, Norway, and Qatar. In contrast, countries with closed economies, plagued by wars, weak institutions, political instability, and low productivity, occupy the bottom tiers.

The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean's 2025 Statistical Yearbook estimated Cuba's nominal GDP for 2024 at approximately $12.1 billion. When divided by its population, the nominal GDP per capita was merely $1,082.8 annually. This is an alarmingly low figure for a nation just 90 miles from the United States, boasting an educated populace, significant natural resources, arable land, tourism potential, and a financially robust diaspora.

Considering this data within a global classification of over 200 countries and territories—including Bermuda, the Cayman Islands, Hong Kong, Macao, Puerto Rico, Aruba, and Curacao—Cuba ranks around 199th, with variations depending on the source, year, and exchange rate applied.

This isn't an official ranking from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), as the IMF currently does not provide figures for Cuba's nominal GDP or GDP per capita. This necessitates relying on CEPAL's estimates and acknowledging the significant monetary distortions within Cuba.

The Consequences of Economic Mismanagement

Even with these considerations, the conclusion is devastating: Cuba's economy has descended to levels akin to Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Liberia, Gambia, Chad, and other countries with severe structural deficiencies. The World Bank estimates recent values close to $1,148 per person for Burkina Faso, $933 for Ethiopia, $915 for Liberia, and $919 for Gambia.

This situation did not arise from an unavoidable natural disaster but from over six decades of a communist centrally planned economic model. This model eliminated private property, destroyed productive incentives, made the state the near-absolute owner, subordinated the economy to political decisions, and suppressed individual initiative for decades.

While U.S. sanctions, external difficulties, and the loss of economic allies undeniably exacerbate the crisis, CEPAL also points to internal imbalances, delays in reforms, insufficient investment, currency shortages, and structural problems that hinder growth.

Even the regime acknowledged that by the end of 2024, the economy remained approximately 11% below 2019 levels. Primary activities—agriculture, livestock, and mining—plummeted by 53%, while industrial activities contracted by 23%.

Cuba's position at the bottom of the global ranking is not due to a lack of human capability. It is the result of a system that prioritizes political control over economic freedom, fears independent entrepreneurs, sets monopolies, artificial prices, and unrealistic exchange rates, and uses national resources without transparency or accountability.

The estimated rank of 199 is approximate. The poverty, shortages, blackouts, mass emigration, and economic destruction are undeniable realities. Cuba needs much more than administrative measures; it requires dismantling the economic model that turned a nation with immense potential into one of the world's most impoverished economies.

For Cuba to thrive, it needs democracy, enabling its people to take control of their destiny and fully develop their creative and entrepreneurial capacities.