A group of a dozen specialists in fields such as infrastructure, economics, and engineering convened on Wednesday at the American Museum of the Cuban Diaspora in Miami to deliberate on Cuba's reconstruction following a potential democratic transition. They discussed specific cost estimates and timelines.
The event, titled "Initiative for a Democratic and Economic Alternative for Cuba," marked the first in a series of conferences organized by the museum, in collaboration with institutions like the Cuban Studies Institute at Florida International University (FIU), the Association of Cuban-American Engineers, and the Foundation for Human Rights in Cuba, among others.
Key Points of the Discussion
Several participants shared their insights during the forum, as reported by Martí Noticias. Notably, Rafael Romeu, president of the Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy, projected that the initial 180 days of stabilization following the start of a transition would cost between $180 million and $270 million.
This funding would primarily come from U.S. private capital. A full economic recovery, encompassing sectors such as energy, infrastructure, housing, agriculture, tourism, and telecommunications, is estimated to require between $275 billion and $375 billion over a period of 10 to 15 years.
Jorge Piñón, a researcher at the University of Texas at Austin's Energy Institute, highlighted the severe degradation of Cuba's electrical sector: "The cost to restore the electrical sector in Cuba would be between $5 billion and $8 billion, taking three to five years."
Piñón warned that many power-generating units have been operational for over 40 years: "These plants are worn out, they're broken, using poor technology, and are burning Cuban crude oil, which perpetuates the vicious cycle of deterioration in the island's energy system. It's going to take time."
Josenrique Cueto, former interim director of the Miami-Dade County Water and Sewer Department, estimated that rebuilding Cuba's water and sewer system would cost around $8 billion.
"An initial recovery could be feasible within 24 months. However, achieving a stable, consistent system would take at least 5 to 10 years," he stated.
Consensus on Regime Change for Successful Reform
The forum's consensus was clear: without a prior regime change, any reform or investment would be doomed to fail.
Marcell Felipe, president of the American Museum of the Cuban Diaspora, emphasized that while Cuba's future could be promising, the necessary conditions for action have not yet been established.
"We have the human talent, the capacity, and the private capital in exile ready to invest immediately to rebuild the country, without U.S. government involvement in those areas. However, all this hinges on the essential issue of regime change. This won't happen as long as the Castro and Díaz-Canel families remain in power," he stated.
Cuban-American entrepreneur Iván Herrera expressed a more direct stance: "I support an invasion. I support taking Cuba," adding that "there has never been a regime that voluntarily relinquished power, especially not one that has spent 70 years distributing poverty."
Context: Increased Pressure and Structural Crisis
The forum took place amid growing U.S. pressure on the Cuban regime and active planning by the exile community for a transition.
On Tuesday, a cargo plane departed Miami for Cuba carrying 700 packages of food and hygiene kits, marking the first shipment of a $100 million humanitarian aid program sponsored by the U.S. government, with direct distribution to the Cuban people through Catholic groups.
The island's energy crisis exacerbates the urgency of the discussion. By 2026, Cuba faces power outages lasting up to 20-24 hours daily, with a generation deficit of approximately 2,100 MW. There is no fuel for public transportation, and the quality of life is deteriorating. Salaries are insufficient to meet basic needs.
Event organizers in Miami announced a second forum focused on health, education, and childhood will be held in the coming weeks.
Jesús Tundidor, vice president of the museum, encapsulated the exiles' message: "We want the U.S. government, Secretary Marco Rubio, and everyone to understand that we have a plan. We are ready for a free Cuba."
Frequently Asked Questions About Cuba's Rebuilding Efforts
What is the estimated cost of rebuilding Cuba after a regime change?
The total cost of rebuilding Cuba, including sectors like energy, infrastructure, housing, agriculture, tourism, and telecommunications, is estimated to be between $275 billion and $375 billion over 10 to 15 years.
How long will it take to restore Cuba's electrical sector?
Restoring Cuba's electrical sector is projected to cost between $5 billion and $8 billion and will take approximately three to five years.
Who will finance the reconstruction of Cuba?
The reconstruction is expected to be financed primarily by private U.S. capital.