Cuban journalist and author Luis Felipe Rojas issued a stark warning on Tuesday, describing how the extreme poverty and hunger plaguing Cuba might become the catalyst for the regime's downfall, albeit in a potentially chaotic manner.
During an interview with Tania Costa for CiberCuba, Rojas reflected on the persistent decline in living conditions on the island and the exhaustion of measures that previously mitigated the crisis.
"It's unpleasant to think about, to say, but hunger, extreme poverty, and as the situation worsens, will be a trigger and a more direct route to end everything, even if it ends poorly, rather than waiting for change from outside," asserted the author of "El ruido de los libros."
The Role of Remittances in the Crisis
Rojas highlighted the transformation of remittances as a barometer of the crisis. In the past, a Cuban family with relatives abroad might receive at least $100 annually, providing some relief. Now, even with monthly remittances, the money is insufficient.
"Money might be sent, and they can buy things one month, but the next month what was available is gone," he pointed out.
A Deepening Food Crisis
The scenario Rojas describes aligns with data showing critical levels of food insecurity across the island. The Food Monitor Program found that by April 2026, 96.91% of Cubans had lost adequate access to food, with 33.9% of households recently experiencing hunger.
This growing discontent has already led to mobilizations. The Observatorio Cubano de Conflictos recorded 1,311 protests in May 2026, marking the highest monthly figure of the year. This surge followed a demonstration on May 13 in San Miguel del Padrón, Havana, where cries of "Electricity and food!" echoed from a population at its breaking point.
Challenges of Remittances and Government Response
Remittances, which could help ease some of this strain, face increasing hurdles. Western Union indefinitely suspended money transfers from the United States to Cuba in February 2025 following sanctions against Orbit S.A. Since January 2026, a 1% tax on cash transfers from the U.S. has been imposed.
In the first half of 2026, nearly 2,000 repressive actions were reported in Cuba, most linked to peaceful protests, highlighting the regime's preference for repression over solutions in response to public discontent.
A New Novel in the Works
At the end of the interview, Rojas shared he is working on a novel set against the backdrop of the regime's history and exile. The narrative begins during the Cuban military service amid the 1989 "Causa número uno" — the trial that led to the execution of General Arnaldo Ochoa and three Interior Ministry officers — and follows a group of recruits guarding a high-ranking officer being transferred from a special prison to Oriente.
"One of these soldiers comes to the United States and encounters someone resembling the person they guarded, but they're never really there. The stories intersect between the U.S. and Cuba," explained Rojas, who frequents a public library in Miami two or three times a week to work on his manuscript.
The "Causa número uno" is regarded as one of the darkest chapters in the Cuban regime's history, with ongoing debates about whether the drug trafficking charges were merely a pretext to eliminate figures who had gained too much power or popularity within the system.
Understanding Cuba's Current Crisis
What is causing the current crisis in Cuba?
The crisis in Cuba is primarily driven by extreme poverty and widespread hunger, exacerbated by the government's inability to provide adequate solutions and the increasing restrictions on remittances from abroad.
How have remittances changed in recent years?
Remittances, once a source of relief for Cuban families, have become less effective due to increased restrictions and a new tax on cash transfers from the U.S., making it difficult for families to sustain themselves.
What was the "Causa número uno" in Cuban history?
The "Causa número uno" was a significant trial in 1989 that resulted in the execution of General Arnaldo Ochoa and three Interior Ministry officers, considered a dark period in Cuba's history with ongoing debates about its true motives.