Cuba Experiences Twice as Many Deaths as Births, Official Statistics Reveal

In 2025, Cuba recorded 136,214 deaths compared to just 68,064 births, marking the first time in recent history that deaths have nearly doubled births, according to official statistics released by the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI) during a press conference on Tuesday.

The figures were presented by Juan Carlos Alfonso Fraga, deputy chief of ONEI, and Diego Enrique González Galbán, director of the Center for Population and Development Studies. They confirmed that the nation’s population at the end of 2025 was 9,434,593, a decline of 313,414 people compared to 2024.

The 68,064 births recorded last year represent the lowest number in decades, even less than in 1899, when Cuba was emerging from the War of Independence. The total fertility rate remained at a historic low of 1.29 children per woman for the second consecutive year, far below the replacement level of 2.1.

The natural growth rate plummeted to -7.1 per 1,000 inhabitants, indicating that the island is losing population even before considering emigration. This demographic decline is exacerbated by an unrelenting exodus: in 2025, the net migration was -245,264, the primary driver of the total population decrease.

Impact on Cuba's Workforce and Population Aging

In just five years, Cuba lost 1,259,894 individuals of working age, a direct blow to the nation’s productive capacity, unparalleled outside wartime contexts. The degree of population aging reached 26.7%, solidifying Cuba as the most aged country in Latin America and the Caribbean by a wide margin.

Infant mortality stood at 9.9 per 1,000 live births, a figure that the regime itself acknowledges as a 148% increase from 2018, when it was 4.0.

Alfonso Fraga did not hide the seriousness of the situation: "There is no similar experience," he admitted, noting that no country in the Global South has faced such a significant population contraction outside of a war context.

Long-Term Population Projections and Political Responses

Since 2020, Cuba's population has decreased from approximately 11 million to 9.4 million, a drop of over 1.6 million in five years, which independent experts believe is even more profound. Demographer Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos estimated that the real population at the end of 2024 was just 8,025,624, 24% less than in 2020, describing the situation as a "demographic emptying" indicative of a "quasi-permanent polycrisis."

Meanwhile, Miguel Díaz-Canel downplayed the exodus last June by labeling emigration as a "global problem," sidestepping the regime’s accountability in a crisis that its own statistics confirm as historic.

The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) warned on July 1 that if current trends continue, Cuba could have only 5.6 million inhabitants by 2100, less than half of the current population.