Economist Challenges Criticism of Cuba Proposal: "Mistaking Sovereignty for Isolation and Authoritarianism"

Pedro Monreal, an economist, has addressed the backlash against the Cuba Transformation proposal. In a series of seven posts on X, he dismissed the notion that advocating for a social market economy aligned with a peaceful resolution with the United States means sacrificing national sovereignty.

Monreal stated, "The critique that proposing a social market economy and a democratic state of law, assuming a peaceful resolution with the U.S., implies a loss of sovereignty deserves a clear response because it confuses sovereignty with isolation and authoritarianism," as part of his message series.

The Misinterpretation of Sovereignty

He emphasized that the proposal does not rely on external factors for its internal consistency: "Cuba Transformation does not await external solutions for Cuba’s fundamental issues. Instead, it believes that credible internal change is the best path to redefining external relations."

Monreal also defended the use of geopolitical scenarios as a valid methodological tool: "Using scenarios to assess the feasibility of transformation is not a methodological flaw; it is a way to anticipate in an inevitably uncertain context."

Challenging the Cuban Communist Party's Narrative

One of the more pointed arguments in the thread targeted the Cuban Communist Party (CCP) for a conceptual distortion regarding sovereignty: "Reducing Cuban sovereignty to the CCP's interpretation confuses defending a monopolized political system with the people's full sovereignty to freely decide their political and economic system."

He concluded with a question summarizing his central thesis: "Can a people who are prevented from peacefully changing their political system truly be called sovereign? Real sovereignty is affirmed by unleashing citizens' talent, initiative, and freedoms."

Background of the Proposal

The criticisms Monreal addresses arose after the full publication of Cuba Transformation, a comprehensive 120-page document developed by five Cuban economists—Mauricio de Miranda Parrondo, Omar Everleny Pérez Villanueva, Ricardo Torres Pérez, Pavel Vidal Alejandro, and Monreal himself. The document suggests replacing the current economic model with a social market economy supported by a democratic rule of law.

Supported by the Cuba Study Group and the Observatory on the Cuban Economy, the document outlines a severely declining economy: by 2025, Cuba's real GDP remained below 2014 levels and was over 15% lower than in 2018, with investment barely reaching 7% of GDP compared to the Latin American average of 19%.

The proposal explicitly rejects the models of China or Vietnam—which the regime of Miguel Díaz-Canel has often cited—and insists that economic reforms must be accompanied by political and institutional changes.

Cuba's Economic and Political Challenges

The text identifies the main obstacle to recovery not as the U.S. embargo, but rather the exhaustion of the economic system enforced by the dictatorship. It criticizes successive governments for replacing internal reforms with external alliances, first with the Soviet Union and then with Venezuela.

The authors have clarified that the proposal is not intended as a government program nor is it directed at Díaz-Canel's administration, but rather offers, according to the document itself, "a coherent, realistic, and flexible analytical framework."

The plan is structured into three stages—emergency stabilization for about three years, productive and institutional recovery, and the consolidation of a new development model—and includes measures such as reorganizing the military conglomerate GAESA, eliminating CUPET's monopoly, and reintegrating Cuba into the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and Inter-American Development Bank.