The second tropical depression of the season, which emerged on Sunday over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, is expected to escalate into Tropical Storm Bertha by Monday afternoon. This forecast comes from hurricane specialist Michael Lowry of Local10.
As of this morning, the system was positioned approximately 120 miles south of Panama City, moving northwest at a mere three miles per hour, with maximum sustained winds of 35 miles per hour (mph).
A minor increase is all that's needed for the system to reach tropical storm status. "A slight uptick in surface wind speeds, from 35 mph to 40 mph, is all that's necessary for the system to become Tropical Storm Bertha, which is anticipated to occur later today," Lowry stated.
An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft reported slow but steady drops in pressure on Monday morning, indicating that surface-level circulation is gradually organizing.
Bertha is set to be the second named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, following Arthur, which formed in June and impacted Texas and Louisiana without escalating to hurricane strength.
Expected Path and Areas on Alert
The forecast predicts a slow westward progression along the northern Gulf coast throughout the week, with potential landfall near southeastern Louisiana by Wednesday.
Tropical storm watches are in place from the Florida Panhandle to the Alabama coastline, in anticipation of winds exceeding 38 mph. Additionally, a storm surge watch has been issued from the Alabama-Florida border to the Mississippi River's mouth.
South Florida is not expected to experience direct effects from the system, though drier conditions will likely keep temperatures above normal, with heat indices approaching warning levels each afternoon, according to meteorologist Jennifer Collins.
No Hurricane Threat, But Hazardous Rains Anticipated
Intensity models largely rule out Bertha reaching hurricane strength, with only 3% of scenarios from Google DeepMind's ensemble system of a thousand members considering that possibility.
The primary threats will be locally heavy rains, with general accumulations of two to four inches and localized peaks up to eight inches, along with dangerous rip currents along the northern Gulf coast.
The greatest risk of flash flooding is expected between Tuesday night and Thursday, stretching from southern Louisiana to southeastern Texas.
Water temperatures in the northern Gulf are near record highs for this time of year, which aids in system organization. However, Lowry cautioned that this alone won't lead to significant strengthening:
"By Wednesday, especially, northern wind shear and land interaction should start to dismantle what's left of the storm as it approaches Louisiana," he clarified.
The Colorado State University revised its July forecast to just nine named storms for the entire 2026 season, primarily due to the strengthening of El Niño, which increases wind shear and inhibits cyclone formation in the Atlantic.
Key Questions About Tropical Storm Bertha
What is the current status of Tropical Depression Two?
Tropical Depression Two is expected to evolve into Tropical Storm Bertha by Monday afternoon, with its center located about 120 miles south of Panama City.
What areas are under threat from the potential storm?
The storm is forecasted to move slowly along the northern Gulf coast, with tropical storm watches from the Florida Panhandle to the Alabama coast, and a storm surge watch from the Alabama-Florida border to the Mississippi River's mouth.
Are there any hurricane threats from Bertha?
Models indicate a very low probability, just 3%, of Bertha reaching hurricane strength. The main concerns are heavy rainfall and dangerous rip currents.