CiberCuba Launches Its Own Exchange Rate Monitor: How the New System Operates

CiberCuba has unveiled a new tool to track the exchange rates in Cuba's informal market. This system provides buying and selling rates for the dollar, the euro, and the MLC, using a proprietary method that continuously analyzes real-time market activities and updates several times daily.

Previously, our website relied on exchange rates calculated by El Toque, a pioneering effort we acknowledge for its significant contribution. However, starting today, we are taking a step forward by publishing our calculations, developed through an entirely new system from the ground up.

We believe that the addition of another independent measurement strengthens the existing ones. When various teams, working separately and using different methodologies, arrive at similar figures, it underscores that numbers are dictated not by individuals but by the market itself.

The Self-Regulating Nature of the Market

The informal currency prices are not set by any single entity; instead, they emerge from numerous private transactions. Every day, buying and selling offers are posted across dozens of Telegram and Facebook groups, where users declare their prices. Our system automatically scans these postings—thousands daily from a broad array of groups nationwide—and extracts crucial data: which currency is being offered, whether it's a buy or sell, and the price in Cuban pesos.

Filtering Out Noise: Eliminating Scams and Spam

Not all posts are relevant or legitimate. These groups also contain scams, card sales, Zelle or PayPal transfers, cryptocurrencies, and unrelated posts. Before any calculations, our system filters out this "noise," focusing only on genuine cash currency exchange offers. This initial filtering is crucial; without it, the price would become distorted.

Ensuring Fair Representation: One Seller, One Vote

In these groups, it's common for individuals to repeatedly post the same offer throughout the day. Counting each post individually could allow a few active users—or someone attempting manipulation—to skew prices. To prevent this, we apply a simple rule: each seller counts only once, regardless of how many times they post. This ensures that the price reflects actual market activity, not who shouts the loudest.

Determining a Representative Value

Once the offers are filtered, the system calculates a representative market value, rather than relying on any single listing. It discards outliers—those asking significantly more or less than others—and gives more weight to recent offers, as the market fluctuates throughout the day. The result is a buying and selling rate that encapsulates the current market situation, updated multiple times daily to track market dynamics.

Transparency About Limitations

No measurement is flawless, and we make that clear. Some currencies, like the euro to a lesser extent and especially the MLC, which is solely digital, are traded less frequently, resulting in more volatile prices. In such cases, we notify users that the value is merely indicative.

Our main goal with the CiberCuba monitor is to ensure that no Cuban has to rely on hearsay to understand their money's value. The presence of multiple independent assessments of the informal market is not a weakness but a strength: the more rigorous observations there are, the harder it is to manipulate the market.

These are not opinions or rough estimates. This is a calculated and frequently updated snapshot of the prices thousands of Cubans are paying for their currencies.