The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued its second official advisory on Sunday concerning Tropical Depression Two. This nearly stationary system off Florida's west coast could gradually intensify, bringing tropical storm conditions to the state's northwest region.
According to the NHC's second advisory, released at 4:00 p.m. Central Time, the depression was situated near 27.5 degrees north latitude and 85.0 degrees west longitude, approximately 190 miles south-southeast of Panama City, Florida.
The depression exhibited sustained winds of 30 mph with a minimum central pressure of 1,010 millibars, remaining nearly stationary at that time.
Tropical Storm Watch in Effect
A tropical storm watch was in place for the coastal area from the Ochlockonee River to the Florida-Alabama border, issued since the system's initial advisory.
"The depression is expected to gradually strengthen and could bring tropical storm conditions to parts of northwest Florida beginning Monday night," stated the NHC.
The organization predicted that the system might escalate to a tropical storm by Monday. If it reaches that status, it will be named Bertha, becoming the second named storm of the 2026 Atlantic season, following Arthur.
Projected Path and Forecast
The predicted path showed a slow movement toward the northwest or north-northwest over the next day or two, followed by a westward turn. The center could move near or along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico in the subsequent days.
The official forecast anticipated a peak intensity near 60 mph by Wednesday and Thursday as the system moved westward. However, the NHC cautioned that there was significant uncertainty regarding its development.
In its weather discussion, the agency explained that some models suggested scenarios ranging from a weak depression to a hurricane, but noted that the broad system structure, dry air, wind shear, and proximity to land could restrain its strengthening.
Potential Impacts and Precautions
Residents of Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas should monitor the storm's progress, as additional watches or warnings might be necessary in the coming days.
The depression could bring general rainfall totals of two to four inches, with localized maximums near eight inches, through Friday. The rain is expected to extend from western Florida to the central Texas coast, potentially causing flash floods, particularly in urban areas.
Additionally, a storm surge of one to three feet is predicted from Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka, Florida. The system's waves could also result in dangerous rip currents.
The NHC had been observing this low-pressure area for several days before officially classifying it as a tropical depression on Sunday morning.
Colorado State University revised its forecast for the 2026 Atlantic season to nine named storms, four hurricanes, and one major hurricane, largely due to the expected strengthening of El Niño.
Frequently Asked Questions about Tropical Depression Two
What areas are under a tropical storm watch due to the depression?
A tropical storm watch is in effect for the coastal area from the Ochlockonee River to the Florida-Alabama border.
When is the depression expected to become a tropical storm?
The depression is forecasted to possibly strengthen into a tropical storm by Monday.
What could limit the strengthening of the system?
Factors such as the broad system structure, dry air, wind shear, and proximity to land could limit its intensification.